20120804
AFP
Tunisia's economic rebound is set to continue after the turmoil and recession that swept the country last year, the IMF said on Friday, predicting 2.7 percent GDP growth this year and 3.5 percent in 2013.

A rise in tourism and foreign investment in the first half of 2012 contributed to the North African country's improved outlook, the International Monetary Fund said.

But economic risks loom large, including a worse-than-anticipated recession in Europe that would depress exports and rising social tensions that discourage foreign investment, it added.

"Tunisia’s medium-term economic growth potential remains favourable, but unleashing it requires a comprehensive package of structural reforms to foster private investment," the fund said.

The Islamist-led government gave an even more upbeat economic forecast on Thursday, saying it hoped to achieve growth rates of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 4.5 percent next year, after recording negative growth of 1.8 percent in 2011.

The government wants to relaunch sectors like mining and manufacturing that lagged last year after the uprising, and it aims to create 90,000 new jobs and increase public spending.

The IMF said real growth could reach six percent within five years.

But this assumed "continued macroeconomic stability, improvement in governance and the business environment, reforms of the labour market and education system to address the labour skills mismatches, and a strengthening of the financial sector."

Unemployment, a key factor behind Tunisia's revolution, remains high.

Official figures this week showed a slight drop in the first half of 2012, to 18.1 percent of the active population, down from 18.9 percent at the start of the year.