For the umpteenth time, Nigeria failed to meet the oil production output allocated to it by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), pumping 45,000 less than it did in September and missing the expected target set by the cartel by over 260,000 barrels per day in October.



This development occurred despite assurances by the Minister of State, Petroleum, Mr. Timipre Sylva and the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mallam Melee Kyari of improvement in the country’s output.


A number of factors, including ageing upstream infrastructure, outright sabotage, vandalism and oil theft as well as community issues have combined to hobble Nigeria’s oil production in the last few months.

Added to these reasons, Kyari recently stated that operators were finding it difficult restarting oil facilities shut down in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic last year, amid the cuts imposed by OPEC.

But the November OPEC oil market report showed that Nigeria fell from an average production figure of 1.786 million barrels per day in 2019 to 1.579 million bpd in 2020, to 1.413 million bpd in the first quarter of 2021, 1.423 million bpd in the second quarter of this year and 1.359 million bpd in the third quarter.

In August Nigeria produced 1.296 million barrels per day, in September it was 1.399 million barrels per day and further fell to 1.354 million barrels per day in October.

The latest report also saw OPEC cutting its world oil demand forecast for the last quarter of 2021 as high energy prices curb the recovery from COVID-19, delaying the timeline for a return to pre-pandemic levels of oil use until later in 2022.

The cartel stated that it expects oil demand to average 99.49 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 330,000 bpd from last month’s forecast. The year’s demand growth forecast was reduced by 160,000 bpd to 5.65 million bpd.

“A slowdown in the pace of recovery in the fourth quarter of 2021 is now assumed due to elevated energy prices,” OPEC said in the report, citing slower-than-expected demand in China and India for the downward revision.

Oil has risen to a three-year high above $86 a barrel this year as OPEC+ only gradually ramps up supplies and demand rises, boosting pump prices to the highest in years in some markets.

In addition, OPEC now sees world consumption surpassing the 100 million bpd mark in the third quarter of 2022, three months later than forecast last month. On an annual basis according to OPEC, the world last used over 100 million bpd of oil in 2019.

The producer group stuck to its forecast that demand would rise by 4.15 million bpd next year, expected to take consumption to an average of 100.6 million bpd, above the 2019 level.

It also showed higher output from OPEC and forecast more supplies from U.S. shale producers in 2022.

OPEC+ is gradually unwinding record output cuts put in place last year, agreeing in July to gradually boost output by 400,000 bpd a month from August.

The report showed that OPEC’s output rose in October by 220,000 bpd to 27.45 million bpd with top producer Saudi Arabia providing half the increase, but with four of the 13 OPEC members pumping less due to a lack of capacity.

OPEC sees output of U.S. tight oil, another term for shale, rising by 610,000 bpd in 2022, up 200,000 bpd from last month’s forecast, after a contraction this year, as higher prices prompt more investment, but left its growth forecast for 2022 non-OPEC overall supply steady due to downward revisions in other producers.

OPEC further said it expects the world to need 28.7 million bpd from its members in 2022, down 100,000 bpd from last month but still allowing for higher production.

The organisation stated that crude oil production in the month of October increased mainly in Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, but reduced in Nigeria, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea as well as in Angola.