20091209

HARARE (Reuters) - A battle over who will eventually succeed 85-year-old President Robert Mugabe as party leader threatens the future of his long-ruling ZANU-PF but analysts say an immediate split is unlikely at a congress this week.

By balancing competing factions and through a political patronage system, Mugabe has kept a tight grip on ZANU-PF since becoming party leader in the mid 1970s and spearheaded a guerrilla war against white minority rule.

But as Mugabe heads into the twilight of a political career spanning over half a century, his lieutenants have stepped up an internal fight for prime positions to take over the party when Mugabe retires. He has not given a date.

Rival factions have been jostling for posts in ZANU-PF's "presidium" leadership before a five-yearly party congress opening in Harare on Friday, widening cracks within ranks already torn over personalities, ethnic and regional issues.

"These fights are going to go on until Mugabe goes, and when he goes ZANU-PF is in danger of disintegration," said Eldred Masunungure, a leading political analyst.

"There is no consensus candidate on who should succeed Mugabe, and Mugabe himself has apparently created that crisis to remain in power," Masunungure told Reuters.

But whoever eventually wins the battle to succeed Mugabe -- whenever his position becomes vacant -- will have a huge task to reorganise a party which many critics say just managed to hang onto power last year through violence against the opposition.