businessday

THE political and economic rivalry between SA and Angola is expected to graduate into a battle for dominance in the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) , says US-based global intelligence think-tank Stratfor.

In its annual forecast, its Africa analyst Mark Schroeder predicted the beginning of “a cold war type” of jostling for regional dominance . “Angola’s ambitions of reasserting itself as a regional power will lead to frictions with SA.”

Stratfor says the two countries have “different strengths and vulnerabilities, though each has its own power base and means of leverage”. SA is wealthier and boasts a stronger military and industrial base, while Angola has a “brutally effective security service” and abundant revenue from its now robust oil industry.

Schroeder said competition “will start off rather sedately” this year, with Angola offering bits of its diamond industry and sales of crude oil as a means of keeping relations with SA friendly.

But it would not be long before something like a cold war — a conflict using proxy dissident factions — erupts . The factions’ operations this year will be limited to the political realm, rather than an all-out war like the one between Angola and SA in the 1970s and 1980s, he said.

Angola will have to look at other means to restrain SA’s behaviour from overshadowing its objectives of being a major role- player in the region.

Stratfor said that both states plan to shape Zimbabwe to their liking, and competition will heat up as President Robert Mugabe’s health takes him out of the picture. Already both are manoeuvring their allies into position.

Relations cooled under former president Thabo Mbeki , as SA and Angola feuded over how to handle the crisis in Zimbabwe and the conflict in Democratic Republic of Congo. The tension left South African companies out of lucrative reconstruction deals after Angola’s civil war ended in 2002, while China, Brazil and western countries vie for a slice of its fast- growing economy .

Last year Zuma visited Angola to clinch several deals , but proposals for easing visa requirements and establishing a bilateral commission were left unsigned .