Johannesburg — AN INFLUX of up to 500 000 visitors during the Soccer World Cup is set to dramatically increase traffic on local telecom networks already experiencing "the wireless equivalent of gridlock", according to business advisory and audit firm Deloitte.

In a statement yesterday following the release of its report containing technology, media and telecommunication predictions for this year, Deloitte said the introduction of smartphones had had a profound impact on network demand, with nearly 600-million mobile broadband connections worldwide.
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Smartphone sales last year overtook those of portable PCs for the first time.

Danie Crowther, a partner at Deloitte, said that "perhaps the majority" of an estimated 500 000 World Cup visitors would be using smartphones while in SA, potentially adding to network congestion and further slowing broadband connections that already lag behind those in the US and Europe.

"We often have complaints about broadband speeds, and having such a large group of visitors will add to that," he said. "I hope our network providers are gearing up, otherwise they may have capacity issues."

Crowther called on network providers to substantially increase the number of mobile base stations in use, while stepping up capacity in stations near areas expected to see high network demand.

"But I'm not sure all these things are in place. If it hasn't been done yet, they're not giving themselves a lot of time," he said.

The Deloitte report predicted that the global telecommunications sector would focus heavily on reducing CO2 emissions this year, with a broad focus on cost control.

Firms in SA were expected to see this as "an even bigger priority", due to concerns about electricity capacity problems and Eskom's expected 35% tariff increase.

"Going green is a hot topic in many industries, but the telecom sector can move particularly quickly," said Crowther.

He expected to see a drive to make network base stations more energy efficient, and to develop cellphone chargers that switch off once the phone's battery is charged.

Deloitte made a further series of predictions about the media, including the forecast that "the newspaper and magazine industry will continue to threaten to charge readers for online content, but that talk is unlikely to be matched by action".

The report said that online readers might sign up to proposed micro-payment schemes, "but only if the content is good enough and worth the effort. For some, acquiring an article for 30c online may not justify the time taken to enter credit card details."

Mark Casey, Deloitte's technology, media and telecommunication industry leader, said that South African media companies "haven't got the scale to create payment systems on their own.

"For the time being they will concentrate on cost management, and preventing the further cannibalisation of print subscribers by free online content."

Casey believes there is a market in SA for paid-for online news, "provided the purchase process is quick and easy".

Deloitte predicted a bright future for the net tablet, designed to fill the market gap between smartphones and netbooks.