20100122
allafrica

Nairobi — Kenya has a population of 38.7 million, according to the preliminary results from last year's census. The survey which was conducted by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows that Rift Valley Province leads with the highest population of over 10 million people, with Nyanza and Central provinces coming a distant second with slightly over five million people each.

According to the last census of 1999, there were about 30 million Kenyans. But the new census results can only be known officially by the end of June, according to information obtained by the Saturday Nation. It is, however, unlikely that they will be different from the preliminary results, say sources privy to the matter, but not authorised to discuss it.

The preliminary report, whose launch has been postponed twice, has a breakdown of population in only 158 districts and the government now wants this extended to the current 224 districts. That is explained as one of the reasons that necessitated the delay of the release of the report.

The other reason is the unexplainable population surge at the country's border points, especially along North Eastern Province. Whereas all the other provinces are within the projected growth of nearly 2.7 per cent, the report shows that North Eastern's population growth stands at 8.8 per cent.

Such growth, statistics experts say, only occur in an area where a precious mineral has been discovered or there has been unprecedented migration. None of these has happened in the province.

There were fears that people from neighbouring countries sneaked in during the census to benefit from the food and water offered to encourage the nomadic residents to stay in one area and be counted. Yet the percentage is still too high for such a possibility.

A directive had earlier been issued by President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, to the ministry of Planning and Vision 2030 as well as the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) to crosscheck disputed figures in some regions that appeared way off the projected population.

When asked to comment, Planning Permanent Secretary Edward Sambili only said that a "massive job" was yet to be done on the census data, perhaps giving credence to the argument that the results are unlikely to be released any time soon. Although he could not estimate how long it will take, Dr Sambili told the Saturday Nation that the work remaining is a lot and it will take a long time to finish.

The PS, in a bid to explain the postponements, said the government felt that a better job needed to be done for the census results to be comprehensive and satisfy government needs. Although KNBS was ready to release the interim census report earlier this month, questions that arose about population numbers in some regions led the government to order a fact verification.

The President and the Prime Minister received their copies of the provisional results a day before they were scheduled to be released to the public. This was the second time the release of the census provisional results was being postponed. The earlier postponement was based on an argument that the President was on holiday and the Prime Minister was out of the country.

Planning minister Wycliffe Oparanya, who was supposed to release the results, said that KNBS is now to undertake further processing of the census data.Statisticians are to crosscheck those numbers that were described as "absurdly high" and way off the projected population mark, with the Office of the President and that of the Prime Minister proposing that they bring a full census report instead of provisional results.

The Saturday Nation learnt that KNBS professionals, were disappointed by the postponement arguing that they could statistically explain any arising anomaly adding that the post-numeration survey could still detect it. The professionals feel that the delay to release the results could affect the credibility of the results.

They are said to have argued that the errors, if any, could have arisen at the compilation stage by enumerators who collected that data from the field and recorded it for tabulation. Some experts also said that the two principals should have been given more than a day to study the report.