ANTANANARIVO (Reuters) - Mauritius' economy will expand by 4.5 percent in 2010, up from an earlier government forecast of 4.3 percent, barring any policy change or major external shock, the head of the central bank said.

Governor Rundheersing Bheenick told Reuters that an upward revision for the global economy by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would provide the Indian Ocean island's almost $10 billion economy with an "upwards pull".

"It seems like the (global) recovery will be robust and we can only benefit from that," Bheenick told Reuters in a telephone interview late on Monday.

"Although there are some worries about the timing and coordination of exit strategies in major markets, we do not believe there is any risk of a double dip or prolonged stagnation," he said.

Gross domestic product growth slowed to 2.8 percent in 2009 from an above 5 percent average for the previous three years, as demand for key exports dropped and local consumer demand crumpled.

The Indian Ocean island exports textiles and sugar and is a popular tourism destination for visitors from Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It also has a thriving offshore financial sector.

Bheenick said he expected headline annual inflation to accelerate to 3 percent by June 2010 from 2.5 percent in December. The year-on-year inflation rate, a measure some analysts follow closely, would reach 4 percent in June, up from December's 1.5 percent, he said.

But he said inflationary pressures at home were under control with external shocks from rising commodity, oil and food prices presenting the greatest risk to consumer prices on the import-dependent island.