20100425
ALL AFRICA

Washington, DC — "In the minds of its sponsors, the CPA [Comprehensive Peace Agreement] is "too big to fail." ... The bailout is simple: support the SPLM/NCP to muddle through no matter how flawed or sham the elections may be. - - Ahmed Elzobier in Sudan Tribune, April 21, 2010

Final results have not been released from the elections in Sudan that took place over four days from April 11-15, but several conclusions are clear, even if seemingly contradictory.

The election process, particularly in the pre-election period, was in no way free or fair. Nevertheless, the results will be accepted both by major Sudanese parties and by the international community" as a successful "milestone" in implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The ruling parties in Khartoum and Juba will continue to participate in a "Government of National Unity," and the threat of a new war will be postponed as preparations continue for a referendum in 2011 to decide on the secession of Southern Sudan.

As commentator Ahmed Elzobier remarked, the elections mean different things to different stakeholders, for most southerners a step on the road to independence, for President Omar al-Bashir a validation as "the only choice" to rule the country, and for most northerners an occasion for apathy, cynicism, or disgust. Nesrine Malik, writing in the Guardian on April 24, commented that "the lack of viable alternatives and shameful withdrawals meant Omar alBashir was found to win - even without vote rigging." (http://tinyurl.com/3454q6g)

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains a summary of election observers reports, compiled by the UN Integrated Regional Information Networks, a statement on the election by the Sudan Independent Civil Society Network, and an analysis by Ahmed Elzobier.

Another AfricaFocus Bulletin posted on the web today, but not sent out by e-mail, contains excerpts from a new report on prospects for Sudan after the elections, entitle No Easy Ways Ahead. See excerpts at http://www.africafocus.org/docs10/sud1004b.php