20100809
africanews

A flurry of concerns has erupted within sections of civic society and other observers over the possibility of Zimbabwe holding its general elections when the life span of the volatile transitional government expires next year. These concerns stem from the likely risk of the voting being done under a less than ideal electoral climate.

Reports of turmoil surrounding the drafting of a new constitution, and the messy state of the voters’ roll are cause for numerous such worries. How much longer should a wretched and disenfranchised Zimbabwean populace wait? Is the Southern African nation on the threshold of installing its rather elusive new democracy this time around?

A Zimbabwean civic group, Sokwanele, has revealed the country’s roll is in shambles. It says it pored over and discovered at least 74 000 names of obscure people aged above 100 on the list used in the 2008 elections. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission allegedly wants about a year to fix the voters’ roll fiasco.

In recent weeks, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s mainstream MDC and President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu (Pf) reinforced signals that the next polls were imminent, both parties vowing to hit the campaign trail anytime soon. Mugabe has been busy of late mingling with local churches to curry favours and garner political support, a move analyst say was all but in vain for the aging autocrat.

However, Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara of the smaller faction of the MDC has been back-pedaling on the subject matter. In a statement that contradicted his GNU coalition peers last week, he said that the electoral landscape would still be far from ripe by next year, and polling should be rescheduled.

It remains hard to establish if Mutambara’s proclamations are anything to go by. A report last month in an investigative publication, The Zimbabwe Mail, claims that he is reeling at the centre of a thickening plot to oust him as leader by members of his party, accused of immaturity and of idolising Mugabe.

He has been accused of flattering dictators before. This has prompted speculation Mutambara prefers elections to be adjourned to allow himself time to sort out his brewing political problems.

But with Mugabe evidently determined to stay put ad infinitum in the position of power, blocking the Global Political Agreement by applying his own version of “reforms”, hopes of a new administration that could deliver on the aspirations of the larger Zimbabwean population now lie in the writing of a democratic constitution.

Having been trounced by Tsvangirai in the botched 2008 plebiscite, Mugabe knows he is in for another defeat.

And still, the iron-fisted battle to torpedo the ongoing constitutional outreach programme by Zanu (PF) radicals and military elements makes for much unease.

“Nevertheless, the struggle for a democratic constitution must continue,” writes respected political commentator, John Makumbe, in The Zimbabwean newspaper. The final document is expected by end of this year after a referendum.

Sustained pressure from the SADC brokers to persuade Mugabe into complying with the provisions of the GPA has certainly gained little success. The long-time Zimbabwean despot has rendered the mediation efforts by South African President Jacob Zuma futile beyond any reasonable doubt, deliberately vulgarising the GPA by making further unilateral appointments of high-ranking government officials.

Last month’s bid by the GNU to convince the European Union to lift targeted sanctions against the Zanu (PF) cabal hit a brick wall, when a ministerial delegation was rejected with the violation of the GPA, human rights and rule of law being cited.

Perhaps Mugabe’s furious bashing of the West last week at the burial of her late sister, Sabina Mugabe, underscores his growing frustrations at the EU’s unwavering stance on the issue of his international isolation.

“We have sent an inclusive delegation to the European Union to seek the removal of sanctions. The delegation came empty handed. Sanctions must go,” said Mugabe in a feat of anger, pinpointing western countries for trying to remove him from power.

By his admission, western travel and financial embargoes are hurting. This flies in the face of a recent report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). The South African-based think tank has said the policy of “smart” sanctions on Mugabe and his inner circle has been ineffective.

But addressing a forum of African youths in Washington last week, US President Barack Obama said he believed the opposite about Mugabe when questioned on the sanctions issue. He said, “I think Mugabe is an example of a leader who came in as a liberation fighter and … I do not see him serving his people well”
The unity government has indeed managed to achieve slight improvements to the country’s socio-economic conditions- undercutting hyperinflation by “dollarizing” the economy, stemming political violence and reviving service delivery in health, HIV/AIDS, water sanitation and other public systems.

The economy has generally stabilised and gained a bit of traction, scoring a GDP growth of 5.1 percent in 2009.But the potential for further expansion has been hamstrung by the intense feuding over power -sharing within the coalition and Mugabe’s continued grip on counterproductive policies. The Bretton Woods and other international institutions are only prepared to offer massive credit line support once there is a genuine government in place

A controversial indigenous empowerment law that Zanu (PF) enforced recently has roiled business confidence, curtailing the inflow of Foreign Direct and portfolio investments, according to the finance ministry and the country’s bourse, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE). Critics say the law is part of Mugabe’s plan to sabotage the transitional government and extend his term in office.

And amid the return of this modicum of normalcy, humanitarian agencies have continued to give accounts of widespread food shortages, disease fatalities and abject poverty especially in the countryside. The UN reported last week that Zimbabwe needs more than the projected $ 478 million in aid support this year.

Despite the country’s vast diamond and other mineral resources, the country needs an elected administration that could turn around the country’s fortunes.

Unemployment also remains at stratospheric levels, with industry lacking funds to ramp up operational capacity. And this, coupled by the current reverse exodus of Zimbabwean immigrants from neighbouring South Africa due to fresh xenophobia attacks, does not auger well for the fragile coalition.

Calls for elections to be postponed are not new. Given the 2008 post-election violence; concerns about the dilemma of holding polls in 2011 are certainly justified. But there could be no guarantee that delaying the votes would make Mugabe fully comply with GPA. And so an election next year could as well be a daunting, but better option to undertake.