20100907
SW Radio

nalysts have predicted that Zimbabwe would be thrown into serious political turmoil if long time President Robert Mugabe dies in office.

In recent weeks news of Mugabe's allegedly failing health has dominated many newspaper columns around the world because recent pictures of Mugabe showed him walking unsteadily and requiring the assistance of aides to negotiate stairs. But the 86 year-old ZANU PF leader's health has been a closely guarded secret for decades.

Notwithstanding his advanced age and 'deteriorating' health Mugabe, nevertheless appears determined to seek re-election in the next poll, once the redrafting of a new constitution is complete next year.

Academic and political researcher Clifford Mashiri told us this scenario increases the chances that he might die in office, or due to old age will become incapable of performing the duties of his office, by reason of mental or physical incapacity.

'There is a danger that if he (Mugabe) dies while still in power, there are chances the country will be left in disarray as factions in ZANU PF fight to gain control of power. What is clear after 30 years of Mugabe at the helm of ZANU PF is that the party is incapable of resolving the succession issue,' Mashiri said.

He added; 'The possibility of a military coup cannot be ruled out but it is less likely if a person from ZANU PF takes over through an act of Parliament. It would be a different case if someone not from ZANU PF takes over or if there is a mass rising against anyone from ZANU PF taking over.'

Mashiri said people should always look at the powerful generals as 'dirty rich soldiers' who will do anything to protect their wealth, and the situation can only get worse if ZANU PF loyalists in the military split over their choice of leader.

Derek Matyszak has written a paper for the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) titled 'Drop dead beautiful? Legal notes on death and the President.' It looks at the legal position and what ought to happen in terms of the current constitution if Mugabe were to die today.

He writes that Section 29 of the Constitution provides that if the president becomes incapable of performing his duties, he will cease to hold office if a joint committee of the Senate and House of Assembly formed at the request of a two thirds majority of Parliament recommends this.

Another analyst said by law, this was the only plausible way of replacing Mugabe democratically if he fails to complete his presidential term but doubted this would happen under a military that supports ZANU PF.

'As long as you have these generals who rose through ZANLA ranks forget about power transfer when there are no security sector reforms in Zimbabwe. Look back at a series of recent events where power transfer was impossible even when it was clear Mugabe and ZANU PF lost the elections,' the analyst said.

Writing in the British Guardian newspaper last week, Blessing-Miles Tendi, the author of 'Making History in Mugabe's Zimbabwe: Politics, Intellectuals and the Media' said it is time people started thinking seriously about a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe.

'The great leader seemingly appears healthy and unflappable in public. But all is not well with Mugabe, and we must ready ourselves for his departure.

'It is unlikely though that he will be able to unilaterally hand-pick and impose a successor in his party, it is rife with factionalism surrounding two powerful party figures; Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and the most senior living guerrilla figure from the liberation war, retired military general Solomon Mujuru,' Tendi said.

Tendi is of the view that Mugabe has to negotiate a compromise successor with these factions, lest his party falls apart.

'But after years of avoiding the succession issue while internal fissures have deepened, Mugabe may be unable to manage and settle the matter effectively in his lifetime. If this happens, military generals are likely to have the most influence over Zimbabwe's future,' he said.