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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters)

South Africa's ruling African National Congress next week holds one of its most important meeting in years that could determine the president's political future and influence economic policy.

The ANC's National General Council, which runs from Monday to Friday in the coastal city of Durban, sets the agenda for the party that dominates the country's politics and is supposed to outline its approaches for managing Africa's largest economy.

President Jacob Zuma enters the meeting with his former allies threatening not to back him for a second term while proposing policies to weaken the rand, nationalise some mines and tax capital inflows, much to the alarm of investors.

Zuma, widely seen as an ineffective leader, might leave the meeting in a weakened position if he cannot keep his old allies on the left or win over a few new ones, which could jeopardise the remainder of a term that expires in 2014.

"He is not guaranteed a second term in office and the variable is whether the factions in the ANC are willing to push Zuma to take a different economic path for South Africa," Daniel Silke, an independent political analyst, said.

One of Zuma's top tasks will be repairing a governing alliance with the powerful labour federation COSATU, strained by by a three-week state workers' strike and complaints from the group of what it says is growing cronyism in his government.

Another will be fending off various rivals in the splintered ANC who are lining up their own bids for power in Africa's oldest political party when it enters a post-Zuma era.

Analysts expect Zuma to pay lip service to economic proposals made by COSATU, such as weakening a currency now at 2-1/2 year highs. But they also see him as not being forceful or decisive enough to push any major change.

"(Currency intervention) is way too complicated and this ANC leadership does not have a long-term plan and has not been able to make serious decisions," said Lumkile Mondi, chief economist at the state-owned Industrial Development Corporation.

POST ZUMA

The calls for mine nationalisation by COSATU and the ANC's Youth League are not likely to lead to any major change for the sector that accounts for about 6-7 percent of GDP, analysts said. .

Mine nationalisation would also place an enormous financial burden on the country, with the influential Mail and Guardian newspaper citing estimates of it costing at least 2 trillion rand, more than double the annual state budget.

The industry would like to see the government come out with a message to reassure investors there was no change in policy ahead and that it will clean up messes such as two questionable mining deals that led to financial windfalls for Zuma's son and political allies.

Succession will probably be one of the most discussed and yet most opaque subjects, with party leaders trying their best to prevent the release of any information about power bids.

Also, the party frowns on open politicking for its offices and those seeking to position themselves as part of the leadership after Zuma risk punishment for revealing their aspirations.

The next major event on the ANC calendar is in 2012 when it holds its National Policy Council, which convenes every five years and is used to elect ANC leaders.