20101030
Citizen

Dar es Salaam — It is already being billed as one of the fiercest and most closely contested campaigns since the first multiparty General Election in 1995.

Yet only a few key factors could make either of the political parties win the election of Members of Parliament and that of the president this year.

As Tanzanians all over the country tomorrow troop to polling stations to cast their votes, independent political analysts and other commentators said the outcome of the exercise could go any way should it be carried out freely and fairly.

Two key opinion polls a few weeks ago showed incumbent President Jakaya Kikwete of Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) leading over his closest rival, Dr Willibrod Slaa, of Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) with a substantial margin. Literally translated the short form, CCM, means Revolutionary Party while Chadema's is Party for Democracy and Development.

The Chadema candidate, Dr Willibrod Slaa, has run a formidable campaign that political watchers say could break the 1995 record by an opposition leader and erode ruling party CCM's hitherto stranglehold on power.

While the final verdict lies with voters on the D-day tomorrow, it is believed that many of them have already made up their minds on whom to vote for. According to analysts, voters usually do this based on their judgment of campaign issues.

But Dr Noordin Jella, a lecturer at the Mzumbe University, said while that may be true, the election outcome could also be determined by other external factors that have nothing to do with the voters themselves.

As an example, he said, the organizational competence of the National Electoral Commission (NEC), transparency and independence were critical to let the will of the people prevail.

On the campaign trail, however, many interviewees said corruption, the need for peace, economic prosperity, employment and empowerment of the less privileged in society resonated well with the masses that turned up to listen to candidates in the last two months of campaigns.

"The best candidate that the voters think would personify these issues once elected stands a better chance of winning their votes," said Mr Richard Kasesela, the chief executive officer of Aids Business Coalition Tanzania (ABCT).

He continued: "People are very much concerned with their economic status and are likely to place their bet on those they think best suit them tomorrow. I also think the massive media coverage on some of the issues could sway some voters to either side."

He added that the common Tanzanian believed and stuck to the printed word even if it is a naked lie.

The deputy secretary general of the Trade Union Congress of Tanzania (Tucta), Mr Nicholas Mgaya, said in his judgment education was the key issue. Water availability, health provision and the fight against grand corruption were others that endear the common man.

"People see the corrupt go scot free and some candidates have promised to introduce free education for all Tanzanians. These are very sensitive issues," he said.

Commented the Mkanyageni parliamentary candidate, Mr Mohamed Habib Mnyaa (CUF): "Issues of corruption, good governance and accountability will definitely influence the outcome of this General Election."

A lecturer at Mzumbe University, Dr Noordin Jella and advocate Bahame Nyanduga also felt that the will of the people could be messed up if authorities interfered with the smooth process of voting and tallying of ballots.

And a senior civil servant, who asked not to be named, said what Tanzanians needed most was a serious and committed leader to make a difference in the country's economic progress.

"Our country is good, but we have never had a totally serious and committed leader to supervise the government and resources for the public interest. I will go for a candidate who assures to pay workers logical salaries and ensures them good working conditions which are the key factors for performance and increased productivity," he said.

The programme officer for the Tanzania Association of NGOs (Tango), Mr Nestory Maswe, said the desire for change of leadership at different levels is likely to sweep some incumbents out of power. "A good number of people just want to change things that have remained the same for years. But there are others who are fanatics in supporting their political parties and will always vote for them," he said.

The Tango leader further said the poor civic education on elections will mean that not everybody will vote wisely.

The former Ubungo MP, Mr Charles Keenja, said political parties had an ample time to sell their policies, and voters would very likely vote for the most viable one. Another former MP, Mr. Mgana Msindai, said the turnout of voters was also important.

A senior lecturer of Philosophy at the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Azaveli Rwaitama, said peace for the country would play a big role. The deployment of unnecessary force, like using the Tanzania Peoples Defense Forces (TPDF), may scare young voters and reduce their turn out, he said.

In the Lake regions, promises of free education and free health care seemed to impress many people while security and employment were also given priority. Parties that are pro-poor and projected their policies as such appeared to pull many people, but whether they would translate into votes remains to be seen.

A lecturer at the St Augustine University of Tanzania (SAUT), teaching mass communication, Mr Albert Tibaijuka, told The Citizen that throughout the campaign period the public appreciated the need for a government that serves the people rather than rules them.

"This has been shown by the manifestoes that we heard during the campaign period that sought to enrich people from the grassroots," he said. He pointed out that the use of local resources for development was a challenge to both the incumbents and those campaigning to oust them.

Mr Tibaijuka said, unlike in the past, this year's voters may tilt the balance when results are announced in many regions.

Leonard Magomba

Supporters of the ruling party at a campaign rally (file photo).

For Mr Ahmad Boniface,36, a tailor, health and education issues have been the most important to people of low income, and these would determine the outcome of the election.

"People have children who must go to school and families which must receive medical care; these cannot be avoided and have been unaffordable for the majority of low income people," said Mr Boniface. He said apart from that the people of Mwanza will also vote for candidates with good land policies because the majority of them still live in squatters.

An administrator and accountant for AAR Health Services, Mwanza branch, Mr Haruna Dawood, told this paper that this year's General Election campaigns have revealed how people are politically inclined as opposed to the past.