20101101
Leadership

Abuja — Severe flooding in July-October could result in food crisis in Sokoto, Jigawa and Kebbi states, says a Famine Early Warning Systems Network report entitled: Nigeria Food Security Outlook, October 2010 to March 2011, monitored yesterday by LEADERSHIP.

According to the report, "A recent joint CILSS/FAO/WFP/FEWS NET post harvest assessment and field reports from FEWS NET enumerators revealed that household food insecurity is mainly concentrated in the lowland areas, near major rivers in Jigawa, Sokoto and Kebbi where excessive flooding in September and October has culminated in reduced household production and poor household food and cash sources, posing a threat to their food security during the October-March 2011 period."

The report, however, noted that "Key determinants of food access such as market food prices, household food replenishment and agricultural-based labor opportunities improved significantly across the country.

"Recovery of pastoral households in localised areas of the northern parts of Yobe and Borno, from the difficult 2010 lean season in July-early September will be slow, due to poor animal body conditions and livestock losses incurred. Improvements in livestock-to-cereal terms of trade are modest," it added.

"The outlook for the South points to mixed tubers and cereal production prospects, in October. The combination of yam, maize and cassava shortages and rising civil insecurity, due to the onset of pre-election campaign, in localised areas of the coastal areas of the South and localised areas of the Southeast and the Southwest, will expose most poor households to moderate food insecurity, during the October-March 2011 period."

It maintained that in the basins of major rivers of the North and extreme North such as Sokoto Rima in Sokoto State and Hadejia River in Jigawa and Kebbi, excessive rains and sudden dam openings in September affected more than 390,000 people, destroying infrastructure and houses, household food stocks (normally low in September), and productive assets (particularly livestock).

"Approximately half of those affected will remain in shelters while others will live with relatives in October and November.

"The assumptions about future conditions in these areas with the most impact on household food security are: poor households who lost their equipment during the floods will not be able to engage in normal dry season cultivation. Some will lose their land due to excessive soil erosion. Those who still have access to land will borrow money from rich and medium households to buy fertilizer and engage in dry season cultivation.

"Road conditions, which are usually bad in October-November, will be worse than normal, leading to high transportation cost and delaying the arrival of cereal and cash crops, from farm gate to local and urban markets. The prevalence of cholera in 2010 is the greatest in almost 20 years. Incidence of waterborne diseases such as cholera and malaria will continue unseasonably in Jigawa, Sokoto and Kebbi beyond October and November," the report said.

On the estimated production losses compared to normal in these areas are, the report projects 60 per cent loss for rice, 40 per cent for millet and sorghum production. "The most affected areas are those in which rice, millet and sorghum cultivation is most important; though cowpea losses were also recorded, they are less significant. "Impacts on vegetable and maize production are minimal as the bulk of the vegetables and maize were harvested in August, before the floods occurred. Given that the flood affected areas, in Jigawa, Sokoto and Kebbi are high millet, sorghum, and rice producing areas, which usually supply major markets, such as Dawanu in Kano, the delay in the arrival of these crops until late November and December instead of late October in a normal year, will keep millet and rice supplies abnormally low in October and November and market sorghum availability low in December, in urban and rural areas of Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi and surrounding states such as Katsina and Zamfara.

"Prices for coarse grains on the Kaura retail market in this area normally increase slightly (010 percent) between late September/October and December.

"However, this year prices are expected to decrease less than normal between September-November and increase faster than normal during this period. Poor households will spend more than normal on food when they will start resorting to markets in March/April due to above normal prices and an early exhaustion of their food reserve," the FEWS report said.