20101203
Financial Gazette

PRESSURE is being brought to bear on Zimbabwe's top leadership to reconsider the decision to go to the polls next year in order to give the country's economy sufficient time to recuperate after a decade of a record-breaking recession while at the same time nursing the polarisation dividing its people in what has rendered the 2011 plebiscite doubtful.

Leading the anti-election drive are regional leaders who are leaning heavily on South African President, Jacob Zuma, who took over from Thabo Mbeki as the point man on issues pertaining to the Zimbabwe crisis, to drive the point home.

Diplomatic sources told The Financial Gazette this week that latest attempts to stretch the life of the not-so-inclusive government beyond the two years agreed under the power-sharing truce signed in September 2008 by the three founding principals were informed by fears that going to the polls without upgrading Zimbabwe's lopsided political environment could produce a disputed outcome that might plunge the country into a deep hole.

Rightly or wrongly, these concerns seem to resonate with the dominant view of the generality of Zimbabwe's populace.

Since 2000, Zimbabwe's electoral outcomes have suffered a credibility crisis resulting in the country's isolation.

Analysts say the economic crisis of the last 10 years was largely caused by the lack of confidence in Zimbabwe's political systems, which the previous government had tried to reverse through populist economic policies that spawned more problems for the nation.

Zuma, seen as wielding a greater say in the course of action the country may eventually take, was in Harare on Friday last week in a desperate attempt to iron out the differences between President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai -- the pillars upon which the coalition is anchored.

He took the opportunity to impress on the country's leadership the need to draw a road-map that would result in the staging of free and fair elections to end the contestation for power between them.

While President Mugabe has hinted that elections would be held in June next year, it would appear that the timetable for the polls is now in disarray.

The road map alluded to by Zuma, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) appointed mediator in the Zimbabwe crisis, is unlikely to be accomplished within the next six months leading to the make-or-break elections that are likely to be fiercely contested between the ageing veteran nationalist and the former trade unionist.

For instance, the drafting stage of the new constitution that must precede the polls is to all intents and purposes now off the rails.

The exercise has been held back by insufficient funding with donors said to be sceptical about the unhelpful haggling and tussling that now characterise the marriage of convenience between ZANU-PF and the two formations of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). The three parties have been at each other's throats over the so-called outstanding issues encompassing the appointment of senior government officials and a cocktail of reforms to be implemented during the life of the inclusive government.

But what may cripple the election call more than anything else are resources.

President Mugabe had tasked Treasury to budget at least US$200 million for both the referendum and polls, which is proving to be a herculean task.

Finance Minister, Tendai Biti, only allocated US$50 million for the referendum and the elections in his 2011 National Budget, a vote which experts say is not enough to fund a national poll.

The hiatus in the Upper House over the alleged unilateral appointments of provincial governors who seat in the Senate as ex-officio members, has also blocked the passage of crucial Bills, some of which are meant to reform the political environment, presently skewed in favour of the incumbent.

The Senate is only expected to reconvene in February, a setback to the country's legislative agenda.

A catalogue of reforms currently in the pipeline include media and security sector reforms, addressing the shambolic state of the voters roll, conclusion of the stalled constitution reform process and diffusing tensions in the unity government.

Ignoring these imperatives, according to diplomatic sources, might compromise the credibility of the elections, which the SADC leaders would want to avoid.

"All these issues, which were also raised by Zuma are impossible to address within the next six months unless President Mugabe and Prime Minister Tsvangirai were content with another sham poll, likely to be rejected," said one diplomat.

"Zuma has been told that he has to realise that the last election was marred by violence and so far no meaningful effort has been relayed into the creation of a peaceful political climate. The Organ on National Healing, Reconciliation and Integration has been stuck in failure and stagnancy."

Legislators from both ZANU-PF and the MDC factions have already voiced concerns over early polls. But analysts say these lawmakers could be easily whipped into line and made to tow their respective party lines, as they are deemed not to have the stamina to induce a political crisis.

A SADC Troika meeting is expected to take place in Pretoria before the end of this week to discuss the way forward regarding the crisis in Harare.