20101207
Af Conf

The postponement of the presidential election until 9 April 2011 means another four months of intensive party politicking and the shelving of plans to reform the oil, gas and electricity sectors. Strategists around President Goodluck Jonathan want time for him to win over his divided party and the country at large.

Delays also give northern Nigeria's political clans time to sharpen strategies and renegotiate their alliances with the south. Policy failures are undermining President Jonathan, who presented himself as the leader who would clean up the oil business and fix the power industry. The amnesty that he and his late predecessor, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, secured in the Niger Delta is coming apart; oil production and state revenues are falling (AC Vol 51 No 21 & AC Vol 52 No 23).

In national politics for less than five years, Jonathan is a candidate of the south, from Bayelsa State in the Delta. He faces problems on many fronts, starting with a bruising battle to win the presidential nomination of the governing People's Democratic Party (PDP) against his rival, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. On 22 November, Abubakar emerged as the north's PDP candidate, shifting the balance of power in the party. If he gets it, Jonathan will have to reverse the mounting PDP losses in the south and cope with the north's less than enthusiastic support for him.

Jonathan will also come up against a resurgent opposition in the form of former military leader, General Muhammadu Buhari and his Congress for Progressive Change. The CPC has built up a substantial following in the northern states of Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna and Bauchi. A northerner with more national appeal, the former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Nuhu Ribadu, may run as candidate for the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Many calculate that in a free election, the combined support for Buhari and Ribadu could at least force the PDP's candidate into a run off.

All parties are preparing for the most open election since Independence. There will be lively primary elections in all the political parties but the big contest for the PDP's nomination is likely to be held in mid-January, giving both candidates time to muster support across Nigeria's 36 states. The party organisation in each of the states, in coordination with the National Executive Council, selects delegates who vote for candidates at the national convention.

Advantage Atiku

Atiku has the advantage in the north. Initially the four northern contenders for the PDP nomination - Atiku, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau and Kwara State Governor Abubakar Bukola Saraki - were going to slug it out at the national convention. Instead, a former Finance Minister and a founder of the PDP, Adamu Ciroma, organised the Northern Political Leaders' Forum to choose a consensus candidate for the north. The forum took soundings across the north and then appointed a nine-member consensus committee, chaired by Ciroma.

We hear that Atiku won four votes and Babangida won three, with one each for Saraki and Gusau, although some suggest that Gusau's man voted for Babangida. As part of the deal, all the defeated candidates had to congratulate Atiku (albeit through clenched teeth) and pledge to support him against Jonathan. In London this week, addressing business people and students at University College, Atiku exuded confidence that he will get the PDP's presidential ticket. Exuberant and a consummate dealmaker, he is the professional politician who established a formidable national political network with the Yar'Adua family two decades ago.

Jonathan has been called the 'accidental president' even by his own allies. More than personal merit, the PDP's primary contest is about the contenders' ability to mobilise support among the state governors and the party officials. Yet the PDP is losing its political dominance, especially in the south: Kayode Fayemi of the ACN overturned the 2007 election of the PDP's Segun Oni as Governor of Ekiti State in an epic legal battle and was sworn in on 16 October; on 26 November, the ACN's Rauf Aregbesola was declared Governor of Osun State after the courts overturned the election of the PDP's Olagunsoye Oyinlola; and Great Ovedje Ogboru of the Democratic People's Party has persuaded the courts to annul the governorship election of the PDP's Emmanuel Uduaghan in Delta State.

With the backing of Babangida and others, Atiku is well placed to garner votes among the 19 states in the north and with the backing of veterans such as former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme, he should make some headway in the south-east.

In his home base in the Niger Delta, Jonathan expects to sweep the board despite the latest wave of militant attacks and he is confident of strong support in the south-west, too. Help from former President Olusegun Obasanjo, a determined foe of Atiku's, will give Team Jonathan more muscle, as will the emergence of the PDP Governor of Ogun State, a Jonathan-ally, Gbenga Daniel, as Chairman of the Nigerian Governors' Forum. In 2007, President Obasanjo's control of the Forum was critical in winning support for Umaru Yar'Adua's nomination. Obasanjo remains at best a controversial figure, though, and is reviled in many parts of the north.

Incumbency will doubtless help Jonathan if his organisation can distribute the patronage fast enough and reinforce his grip on the party organisation and state officials: most of the delegates voting in the presidential primaries will be elected officeholders and party functionaries. Competition for the spoils is intensifying: Jonathan's close ally, Oil Minister Diezani Allison-Madueke, will struggle to organise a fresh bidding round for oil production and exploration licences before the primaries.

On 1 December, Finance Minister Olusegun Oyotoyin Aganga and Central Bank Governor Lamido Aminu Sanusi were summoned to the National Assembly to explain their concern that representatives and senators were overpaid: the Assembly consumes about 25% of the federal government's overheads and its elected officials are among the best paid (and least productive) in the world. Beyond that, the well regarded Segun Aganga and Lamido Sanusi are struggling to bring public finances under control: in its last year, the Yar'Adua government spent about US$15 billion from a special off-budget account for oil revenue and ran down foreign reserves by more than 10%. Aganga and Sanusi have slowed the outflow but will face their toughest test in the months prior to the April election.