20101210
Financial Gazette

Njabulo Ncube — THE troubled Government of National Unity (GNU) is likely to be extended by six-months as pressure piles on partners in the coalition not to rush polls before the adoption of a new constitution that ushers in conditions that would guarantee the legitimacy of the party that would form the next government.

ZANU-PF insiders said President Robert Mugabe, who commands the greatest influence in the hybrid government, may give the power-sharing administration a six-month extension to placate his counterparts in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), who are not convinced Zimbabwe is ready for free and fair elections anytime soon.

The ZANU-PF side of the GNU is hoping to influence the passage of cosmetic electoral reforms during the six months to sweeten its case in the eyes of SADC and cause the 15-member bloc to endorse a negotiated election road-map that would not rock its boat.

The conclusion of the constitution-making process, whose drafting is already far behind schedule, is also on top of ZANU-PF's reform agenda ahead of future polls. The party is confident that the views gathered from its members during the chaotic constitutional outreach programme would outweigh those of its partners in the coalition, particularly of the larger formation of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) headed by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai.

But buckling to pressure from SADC and other internal forces would mean that fresh elections would have to be held in 2012 that is if the incumbent sticks to tradition whereby national polls are held in the first half of an election year.

SADC has been pressing the three principals in the inclusive government to outline a credible election road-map that would produce free and fair elections and break the cycle of contested electoral outcomes that has resulted in the country's isolation from the community of nations.

At the centre of efforts to defer the elections from June 2011, as envisaged by President Mugabe, is South African President, Jacob Zuma, the SADC-appointed mediator in the Zimbabwe crisis.

South Africa is under pressure to mend its patchy record on backing democratic reform on the African continent, which has not been helped by the manner in which Pretoria is handling a power struggle in the West African nation of Cote d'Ivoire, after a disputed election.

Pretoria's middle-of-the-road stance has resulted in the piling of political disputes on the continent as evidenced by the situation in Kenya and Zimbabwe, where South Africa-backed unity governments have faltered.

Zuma has reservations in condoning fresh polls before the completion and adoption of a new constitution given these past experiences. This view is shared by the entire SADC leadership.

Zuma, who was in Harare two weeks ago in a desperate attempt to break the political impasse following a messy fall-out among the principals over alleged unilateralism in the coalition, has demanded that a road-map be agreed upon, but only after a new constitution is in place leading to those elections, a scenario which sources claim the incumbent is aware cannot be achieved within six months to June 2011.

On Tuesday, the Democratic Alliance (DA) of South Africa accused Zuma of failing to provide leadership on the Zimbabwean situation, as pressure mounts on the South African leader to break the stalemate in Harare.

DA's parliamentary leader, Athol Trollip, said Zuma's approach to the Zimbabwean situation has been worse than the so-called "quiet diplomacy" by former South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

While ZANU-PF has burnt bridges with the West, it has remained beholden to SADC and the African Union, who are advocating African solutions to African problems.

It is for this reason that President Mugabe is seen bending backwards to accommodate SADC's position in order to keep his enemies, who are calling for tougher action against his administration, at bay while rallying his regional allies behind a negotiated election road-map.

Civic society groups, including business, have been urging the shaky power-sharing administration of President Mugabe, Prime Minister Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara of the smaller faction of the MDC to shelve elections next year due to the fragility that still characterises the domestic economy and the simmering tensions countrywide that could explode once election campaigns move into top gear.

There are also a myriad of political and logistical challenges that are seen making polls next year impossible.

The drafting of a new constitution to replace the present Lancaster House compromise document, one of the crucial stages before the holding of fresh polls meant to bring closure to the acrimonious coalition, has been stalled by severe financial problems as donors refuse to unzip their purses due to power squabbles between President Mugabe and Prime Minister Tsvangirai.

According to sources within the Parliamentary Constitution Select Committee (COPAC) -- the body charged with the drafting of a new constitution -- the process has been put on hold due to debts accumulated during the three-month outreach exercise, amounting to about US$6 million.

They said it was very difficult to proceed with the next stages of the constitution-making process without settling the outstanding debts, presenting yet another hurdle to President Mugabe's plan to hold polls by June 2011.

If the debt is settled now, another COPAC official added, it would still be impossible for the country to hold new elections in six months under a new constitution.

The official said a draft of the new supreme law of the land was unlikely to be ready until March 2011 with a referendum possible in June or July 2011.

Prime Minister Tsvangirai on Tuesday added weight to speculation the GNU might be extended to allow for the conclusion of the constitution-making process.

In an interview with Reuters in Brussels, Belgium, the premier said elections could not be held by June 2011 as demanded by the President, saying before a ballot was organised, a revised constitution must be in place with electoral reforms.

Speaking on the sidelines of the European Development Days conference, Tsvangirai added that before the polls are held, there must be a referendum on the constitution, a road-map to the elections and an end to violence.

"I don't think at the moment you can conduct an election," he said, warning that a premature election could leave the country back where it was in 2008.

"When the police, army, militia, war veterans are used to intimidate, coerce and cause torture and death to people, that is the kind of violence we need contained," he said.

There is no stipulation in the global political agreement that informs the GNU that the coalition must end in two years after its consummation in February 2009.