2009-09-22

NAIROBI, Sept. 21 (Xinhua) -- Poor harvests due to lack of rain, worsening conflict and effects of El Nino threaten to hit millions of east African people with food shortage this year, the UN food agency said on Monday.

With almost 20 million people in East Africa dependent on food assistance, this number may increase as the hunger season gets under way, especially among marginal farmers, pastoralists and low-income people in urban areas.

Also compounding the problem is the El Nino meteorological phenomenon, which typically brings heavy rains to the area at the end of the year.

This could result in floods and destroying crops, livestock, infrastructure, and homes, FAO said in a statement issued on Monday.

Kenya is already feeling the heat as dwindling stocks at the national grain stores and the high prices are making it difficult for the growing population of the urban poor to buy food.

This is worrying the government and relief agencies who have warned the gloomy situation is deteriorating fast.

The UN food agency said the number of people in Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia depending on food assistance is likely to rise beyond 20 million in case of a drop in cereal production.

In Kenya, the vital maize crop which accounts for 80 percent of annual cereal production is forecast 28 percent below usual levels at 1.84 million tons.

A report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group, a government crisis group that monitors drought situation, has said about 355 million U.S. dollars are needed to feed more than 3.8 million starving people between this month and next February.

"Food assistance will be required for the next six months to fill the gap in areas where terms of trade and loss of incomes and own production have made it impossible for vulnerable poor population to access the minimum food required until end of February 2010. Total amount required is an estimated 398,000 tons of assorted food commodities," the organization said.

The steering group operating under the Prime Minister's Office monitors drought in the country and recommends intervention. It said about 3.8 million people are living at the risk of hunger and need daily food rations to survive.

Although global prices have been on a downward trend recently, prices of maize, a major staple, are still higher than they were two years ago, with households having low purchasing power.

This year's harvest is predicted to be the fourth successive poor harvest in Uganda, with some regions possibly seeing food production well below 50 percent average.

Over 1 million people are estimated to be food insecure in the country, with more possibly becoming hungry.

In Kenya, this year's poor maize crop has reduced access to food.

Kenya's National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) said it has about 2.5 million bags of maize in its stores against 8 million bags required to feed vulnerable communities till the end of the year.

The government has, in its 2009/2010 budget, allocated 2 billion shillings for drought relief, out of which 1 billion shillings will be used to develop a food subsidy scheme.

According to FAO, forced migrations in search of water suppliesand pasture have worsened livestock conditions, increased disease outbreaks and exacerbated resource-based conflicts among pastoralists.

In Ethiopia, production of the secondary "belg" season crop is also estimated at levels well below average. Scarce rains have resulted in crop losses of up to 75 percent in some of the hardest hit areas.

With the partial failure of the "belg" season crop, the number of people in need of emergency assistance is expected to increase by 1.3 million to 6.2 million, FAO said.

"Kremti" season crop prospects are also poor in Eritrea. FAO's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit warned that Somalia is facing the worst humanitarian crisis in 18 years, with half the population, 3.6 million people, in need of life-saving assistance.

This includes 1.4 million people in rural areas affected by severe drought, over 650,000 urban poor facing high food prices and 1.3 million people who have been uprooted by violence.

xinhuanet