20110103
East African

Nairobi — As Sudan goes to the referendum next week, Kenya and Uganda are on high alert in anticipation of a spillover of violence.

This is because a lot is at stake for East Africa if the planned referendum turns chaotic.

Among other security measures, Uganda is strengthening its military presence at its border with Sudan, while Kenya is engaged in diplomatic talks with Khartoum and Juba.

"We are watching the border closely in case violence erupts in Sudan," said Isaac Musumba, Uganda's Minister for Regional Co-operation.

But the army leadership neither confirms nor denies that the government has deployed the military to the border.

"Don't call it deployment. We have just stepped up vigilance," said Lt Col Felix Kulayigye, the army spokesman.

Kampala has also identified potential areas for refugee camps should violence erupt in Sudan.

"We don't want to be caught unawares should there be an influx of refugees," said Uganda's State Minister for Disaster and Refugees, Musa Ecweru.

Internal Affairs Minister Matia Kasaija said the government had put in place 24-hour surveillance at the borders to prevent wrong elements that could take advantage of the Sudan situation from crossing over.

There are fears that the recent simmering tension between the North and the oil-rich south, caused by intermittent air raids in Southern Sudan by the Sudanese army could plunge the region into instability.

Meanwhile, Kenya is diplomatically engaging both Juba and Khartoum, the seats of the two rival governments to avert a possible post-referendum violence.

"We hold regular talks with them and they have promised us they will have a peaceful referendum which will be held on time," said Kenya's Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister, Richard Onyonka.

Although Kenya and Uganda say they will respect the referendum outcome, it is believed they are pushing for the independence of Southern Sudan.

This stand was enhanced by a resolution by the East African Legislative Assembly in Kampala a fortnight ago, to develop a common position that will see the five partner states of the EAC support Southern Sudan in its breakaway bid.

"They (Southern Sudan) asked us to stand with them because they feel we are closer to them. We are going to support them in whatever way," said Augustine Lotodo, a member of the EALA, representing Kenya.

EALA members held talks with Southern Sudan President Salva Kiir in Juba on December 11.

The reactions from East Africa coincide with the US President Barack Obama's note to leaders of Uganda, Kenya, Egypt, Chad, Libya, Ethiopia, South Africa, Rwanda, Nigeria and the African Union, pointing out that Sudan was his main government's priority.

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"This is yet another element of an ongoing aggressive diplomatic effort with the parties in Sudan and with its neighbours reflecting our intense interest in having a successful referendum," White House National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer said in a statement.

"We believe that an on-time referendum is the best means of preventing the resumption of a full-scale war between Northern and Southern Sudan. Over the past four months, the Administration has redoubled our efforts to support referendum preparations and peace negotiations between the two parties."

Although the international community appears to harness the belief that Sudan could return to civil war should the results favour the South, a lot depends on President Bashir -- whether he keeps his word not to fight the South.