20110328
reuters

ABUJA (Reuters) - Violence during Nigeria's elections which begin this week is a concern but is unlikely to disrupt the overall process, the head of the Commonwealth election observer mission said on Monday.

Africa's most populous nation holds a parliamentary vote on Saturday, presidential elections on April 9 and governorship elections in its 36 states a week later. There has already been localised unrest ahead of what are set to be fierce contests.

Diplomats say there appears to have been less thuggery by gangs than in the run-up to the last elections in 2007, which were marred by ballot-stuffing and fraud, although there has been a rise in targeted political killings and bomb attacks.

"In the wake of the flawed 2007 elections it is vital that Nigeria writes a new electoral chapter, restoring public confidence in the country's democratic institutions and processes," said Festus Mogae, former Botswana President and head of the Commonwealth observer mission.

"I am worried about violence this time around but not to such an extent that it will affect the overall elections," he told a news conference in the capital Abuja.

Incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian, is seen as the front runner in the presidential race but faces tough competition in parts of the Muslim north from ex-military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, whose supporters hope he can force a run-off.

Analysts had been concerned that the presidential election would become polarised around rivalry between the mostly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south, but campaigning has largely been free of inflammatory rhetoric.

But local elections could prove a greater security threat.