20110403
Institute for Security Studies (Tshwane/Pretoria)

The moment there is suspicion about a person`s motives, everything he does become tainted - Mahatma Gandhi.

Like the wave of the Arab Revolutions that swept several countries since the beginning of this year, contested elections and presidential bicephalism – a country with two leaders claiming the presidency - are rapidly becoming the hallmarks of the continent`s political processes.

It is as if incumbents and opposition leaders are increasingly discovering a third way, between coups and credible elections, to access state power. While Benin was expected to deliver once again free and fair presidential election and possibly stage another peaceful power change of government, the ongoing, widely ignored post-electoral crisis raises serious concerns about the state of the democratisation process itself.

On the 13th of March, Benin's citizens went to the polls to cast their votes for a new president. If the voting process was seen as peaceful by local and international observers, the outcome remains highly contentious. Benin has now become a theatre of confrontation between the incumbent president Boni Yayi, declared winner of the first round, and the main opposition leader, Adrien Hougbedji, who has also proclaimed himself as the duly elected president.

But what is at stake goes beyond a mere contestation of the electoral results. Indeed, after twenty years, Benin`s democratisation process is still very much in the transition stage. It stems from the fact that the political system suffers greatly from a high degree of political immobility while pretending to be one of the most successful cases of democratisation in Africa. Here again, the fallacy of regularly held elections without profound institutional reforms appears as one of the major impediments to a democratic consolidation.

There is little doubt that the 2011 electoral process in Benin is going to be a crucial test of the country's resolve to take a step further towards consolidating its democratisation process. It is the fifth time that Benin is holding presidential elections since its historical National Conference that paved the way for a peaceful transition from Marxist dictatorship to democratisation in the 1990s. Since then, three transitions of power have taken place peacefully from one civilian leader to another. Meanwhile, over the past few years, Benin`s democratic environment has deteriorated considerably due to the growing conflict between the government and key state institutions including the parliament, government`s attempts at undermining public liberties, allegations of rampant corruption, political assassination and numerous financial scandals.

In essence, what makes any electoral process exciting in Benin, stems not only from the pre-election environment, but also from the uncertainties surrounding the outcomes. Given the electoral map of Benin - which is split among key political forces - it is never clear who will be the winner. Past experiences have also demonstrated that a first round knock-out never occurred and guarantees were in place for the elections to be relatively free and fair. There is now a concern about this year`s exercise pointing toward a general instability and adding to the long list of fraudulent and potentially violent elections in Africa.

There are a number of reasons for that. The elections took place in a highly polarised environment between Yayi Boni and key political actors of the united opposition front named "Union Fait La Nation" (UN). There were some concerns that as the opposition was, for once, united and given the many scandals that marred Yayi Boni`s term in office, voters might decide to sanction his administration. The pre-election balance of power was not in the favour of the government. It has now become clear that the incumbent had anticipated the situation and worked on a strategy to determine the outcomes of the vote well before the election itself. That strategy rests on three pillars.

Firstly, the government successfully regained the control of key state institutions including; the Constitutional Court, the Independent National Electoral Commission and the Supreme Court, all appointed by the president and members of his presidential majority coalition. The neutrality of the constitutional court was compromised by the rejection of various laws voted by the parliament to create a conducive legislative environment for the elections. At the same time, opposition forces have remained uncompromising in their opposition to the current administration and this has forced the president to resort to presidential decrees to implement various government`s decisions and commitments.

Secondly, the voter registration process, mainly the Liste Electorale Permanente Informatisee (LEPI- Permanent Computerised Voter Register) was carefully monitored to favour Yayi`s administration and increase his chances to avoid a second round that might result in a defeat. The confusion that characterised the voter registration process - due to the opposition leaders` call for boycott because of the lack of transparency and the government`s deliberate attempts to reduce the influence of the opposition coalition - results in the exclusion of at least 1.3 million citizens from the vote. Mediation efforts from the AU/ECOWAS/UN delegates and Benin`s former presidents had a very limited impact on the government`s resolve to hold the elections in spite of the contested voter list. In the current post-electoral debacle, the situation has been worsened by allegations of "ghost" voting stations and inflated voting population in the North, Yayi Boni`s stronghold.

Thirdly, the government has tightened security measures by deploying heavily armed soldiers and police officers at strategic places in the country with firm instruction to enforce the imposed ban on any kind of protest. The militarisation of the electoral process poses a risk of violent confrontations as militants of opposition parties have lost confidence in the judiciary. If this is not carefully monitored and managed, it is likely to see Benin becoming another area of electoral tension in the already fragile and unstable West African region.

While the electoral commission declared Yayi Boni as the winner of the vote with 54 percent, confirmed by the constitutional court, thus dashing any hope of a run-off, the opposition leader has rejected the results and called for street mobilisation. Whether the call will be heeded remains to be seen, as the volatile situation in Cote d`Ivoire with two presidents seem to frighten the electorate in Benin.

In the history of Benin`s democratisation process, no president has ever won the election in the first round and the vote rigging allegations are serious enough to dent the legitimacy of the incumbent. No matter how the issue is resolved, Boni Yayi, is likely to emerge increasingly fragile and with disputed legitimacy. The upcoming legislative elections could also be a trigger for violence, as his supporters would need to get him a majority in the parliament for him to govern. Given the stalemate of the presidential contest, Benin is not yet out of trouble. Concerted efforts are needed to both avoid prolonged violent confrontation and preserve the reputation of Benin as democracy's hope.

David Zounmenou is senior researcher in the African Conflict Prevention Programme of the Institute of Security Studies Pretoria Office.