20110416
this day

Lagos — As Nigerians file out Saturday across the country to elect a new president from a field of 17 candidates, all signals point to President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as likely to coast home to victory.



Last week's National Assembly election dominated by Jonathan's PDP and the latest results from the poll conducted for THISDAY by Ipsos, the world's leading market research company, are pointers to an imminent victory for Jonathan at first ballot.

A delegation of eminent politicians from the North who visited Jonathan at the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja on Tuesday, with a pledge to work for him in the election has also enhanced his chances, particularly in the North-West.

The delegation, led by the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon.Umar Ghali Na'Abba, also had Tanko Yakassai, a member of the Northern Political Leaders Group in it. Yakassai, who had hitherto opposed Jonathan because of the zoning policy of the PDP, made a U-turn during the visit, pledging total support for his candidacy.

Going by informed analysis, Saturday's race may just be a one-horse affair. The ratings of the other hitherto leading candidates - Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change; Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party and Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria - dipped considerably after the National Assembly elections especially with regard to the CPC which had been expected to put up a strong showing.

Buhari's woes seem to have been compounded by the collapse on Wednesday of the alliance talk with the ACN. The CPC and ACN were banking on moving the poll to second ballot and ultimately stopping Jonathan.

The latest results of the poll conducted nationwide for THISDAY by Ipsos showed 62.1 per cent of the respondents saying they would vote for Jonathan.

The results showed that Jonathan would win in all the geo-political zones, except North-West where Buhari is strongest.

Based on the result, Jonathan is expected to have clear leads in 25 states - Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba, and the FCT.

The incumbent president holds narrow leads in two states - Bauchi and Osun. Going by the results of the survey, Jonathan will score at least 25 per cent in 32 states and FCT. He may however fail to hit the percentage in four states - Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi and Yobe.

Candidate Buhari came second in the latest THISDAY/Ipso poll with 23.6 per. The CPC candidate, according to the result, will likely get clear leads in six states - Borno, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and Zamfara - and narrow leads in three - Katsina, Niger and Sokoto.

The poll also indicated that it might be an uphill task for Buhari to win 25 percent of votes in 2/3 of the 36 states as required by the constitution.

According to the poll result, he is likely to meet the requirement in only 14 states and FCT, while failing in 22 states. Instructively, he did not score 25 per cent of the polled samples in any of the 17 Southern states.

Ribadu and Shekarau performed woefully in the latest poll. The ACN candidate scored 6 per cent and did not record any kind of lead in any of the states, be it narrow or wide.

Shekarau got 1.9 per cent and also did not record any kind of lead in any of the states.

The results of last week National Assembly elections are also expected to shape Saturday's presidential election.

While Jonathan's PDP lost some of its National Assembly seats, especially in the South-West, it is still leading the table in all the results that have been officially declared so far.

The PDP dominated last week's polls in the South- East, South-South, North-Central and North-East. The party made very strong inroad into hitherto strongholds of the ANPP in Borno and Kano, winning most of the senatorial and House of Representatives seats. Surprisingly, the CPC did not sweep the North-West as widely predicted, with the PDP going strong in Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto and Kebbi.

In Borno Central senatorial district, the PDP defeated Governor Ali Modu Sherriff who contested for the seat. The party eventually won two of the three senatorial seats in Borno State. In Kano, PDP also won two of the three senatorial seats.

With 91 senatorial results officially announced, PDP has won 59 and is now past the 55 required for simple majority in the Senate. There are 109 seats in the upper legislative chamber.

The ruling party has also won 140 out of 263 seats so far declared in the House of Representatives where a figure of 181 is needed to attain simple majority in a House of 360 lawmakers.

This trend is expected to continue in Saturday's election, leaving the coast clear for Jonathan to snatch victory.

Analysts say the trend in the South-West during the National Assembly election is expected to change Saturday, tilting in favour of the incumbent President.

Jonathan's popularity has been on the rise in the region, particularly after delivering on his promise of non-interference in the electoral process.

Buhari's CPC made very little impact in the entire Southern and North-Central Nigeria during the National Assembly elections. CPC was only able to win some few seats into the Senate and House of Representatives, mainly from the North- East and North-West. The states include Niger, Kano, Zamfara, Katsina and Kaduna. This trend will most likely be replicated in today's presidential election.

Ribadu's ACN dominated the National Assembly elections in the South-West, except for Ondo State where the Labour Party completely dominated. ACN also took two senatorial seats from the PDP in Edo State. However, the party performed woefully in all the other regions of the country, making it impossible for Ribadu to even dream of winning today's presidential election.

ACN's domination of the South-West in the National Assembly elections may not fully rob on Ribadu during today's election.

For many analysts, the presidential election will be a different ball game in the South-West, with Jonathan most likely to perform very well in the region.

The winner of Saturday's presidential election is required to score a simple majority of votes in addition to scoring a minimum of 25 per cent of the total vote cast in at least 24 states of the federation.