JOHANNESBURG, 30 September 2009 (IRIN) - Ongoing extreme changes in Zambia's climate could bring losses of more than US$4 billion in agricultural income in the next 10 years, driving hundreds of thousands into poverty and food insecurity. Agriculture contributes 21 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) of $14.3 billion.

These projections were based on a new study of 10-year climate patterns over the past 30 years, including the best and worst 10-year rainfall periods, by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), a US-based think-tank.

"If you take into account the worst 10-year rainfall period, then Zambia's economy could lose as much as $7.1 billion in the next 10 years and drive 648,000 people below the poverty line," said James Thurlow, one of the three IFPRI researchers who authored the study.

Extreme changes in rainfall and temperature in the past 10 years have already lowered GDP by 0.4 percent every year. The southern and central regions of the country, where people were experiencing climate shocks such as droughts and floods, could be among the worst affected.

Thurlow said the uncertainty of the extent of future climate change would complicate contingency planning, which could exacerbate the impact on Zambia's population of about 12 million.

The study also warned that food availability could decline. In the current climate-change scenario, production of the staple food, maize, would rise by only 20kg per person by 2016 in a country that is already food insecure. In the worst-case scenario, per capita maize availability would slump below 2006 levels.

Thurlow said the researchers had looked at the impact of climate variability on various sectors and found agriculture to be the most vulnerable - "perhaps not surprisingly in rainfall-dependent Zambia" - and that this would seriously hamper efforts to reduce poverty.

What to do with the findings?

The authors urged the government to take immediateaction to counter the effects of climate variability by investing in drought-tolerant maize varieties, backed by an efficient seed and fertilizer distribution system.

"At the smallholder-farm level we advocate better methods of water management, such as irrigation and conservation farming - zero-tillage methods that have been shown in parts of Zambia to improve water retention in the soil," Thurlow said.

"We also underline the need for better grain storage facilities, both on the farm and at the national level. At the farm level this would help farmers to smooth consumption during lean years; at the national level it would allow the government to manage food security across good and bad years."

The analysis found that better infrastructure and information systems would allow "food production in Zambia's northern provinces, which are typically less affected by climate variability, to partially help smooth some of the shortfall in southern production during major drought years."

Despite having enjoyed a good harvest in 2009, including a maize surplus, tens of thousands of people in Zambia still require food assistance due to the localised impact of floods and because many of the poorest and most vulnerable people are unable to access food, according to the World Food Programme.

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