20110509
reuters

A stalemate on the battlefields of Libya and a political deadlock on the U.N. Security Council have left Western powers with a stark choice -- covertly aid the rebels or leave them in the lurch.



Analysts and U.N. diplomats warn that if the United States, Britain, France or their allies were to exploit loopholes in, or secretly circumvent, a sanctions regime they themselves engineered in February and March, it could prompt Russia or China to adopt a similar stance on the sanctions against Iran.

Russia and China, both veto-wielding permanent members of the 15-nation Security Council, have become increasingly critical of the NATO-led operation to protect civilians in OPEC-member Libya, which they have suggested appears to be killing more civilians than it is intended to protect.

The Security Council's Libya sanctions committee could move to exempt the rebels from measures intended to punish Gaddafi's government, but one envoy said the "political atmospherics have changed." Russia and China, which reluctantly abstained on a vote to approve military action, have run out of patience and are unlikely to support any adjustments of the sanctions.

"The problem for the West is that several key players on the council now feel that the authority they granted was abused and they're not inclined to help the West extricate itself," said David Bosco of American University in Washington.

U.N. diplomats told Reuters that Russia and China, which complain that NATO is going beyond its U.N. mandate to protect civilians and really wants "regime change" and Gaddafi's ouster, have made clear that they would block any attempt to aid the rebels by exempting them from the U.N. sanctions.

Asked what options the Western powers and their allies have to help the rebels, a council diplomat said on condition of anonymity: "Covert aid. That's really our only option now. Or hope that a political solution to the impasse emerges that will lead to Gaddafi's departure. That would change everything."

But there are no signs that a political solution is in the works, and Gaddafi and his sons are refusing to step down.