Afran : Report Forecasts Oil Depletion in 10 Years
on 2009/10/11 3:04:47
Afran

A new report authored by the United Kingdom Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has painted a gloomy picture on the future availability of conventional oil, which could have severe economic impact across the world.

Also, Nigeria's gas utilisation project at the Ovade-Ogharafe oil field in Delta State has been successfully registered under the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, boosting Federal Government's efforts to reduce gas flaring and improve utilisation.

The report entitled "Global Oil Depletion: An Assessment of the Evidence for a near-term Peak in Global Oil Produc-tion", found that conventional oil may peak before 2030.

But it also argues that there's a "significant risk" that the much sought after natural resource might peak before 2020.

"A peak in conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020. Given the lead times required to both develop substitute fuels and improve energy efficiency, this risk needs to be given serious consideration," UKERC said.

It was discovered that the world may be entering a difficult phase characterised by slow and expensive oil. In other words, even the discovery of new oil fields is fraught with the problem of slow and high cost of extraction.

The situation might be compounded by difficulty in making such discoveries in the first place, the report said.

"The rate of decline of production is accelerating. More than two thirds of existing capacity may need to be replaced by 2030 solely to prevent production from falling.

"While large resources of conventional oil may be available, these are unlikely to be accessed quickly and may make little difference to the timing of the global peak," the report argued.

But experts have debated the accuracy of reports that are precise about oil depletion. While some argue global oil producing is falling drastically, others insist there is enough to meet 21st century global demand.

Mr. Steve Sorell was quoted by Science Daily as saying that "tt makes no sense to provide precise forecasts of when a peak in oil production will occur. The data is unreliable, there are multiple factors to consider and a 'bumpy plateau' seems more likely than a sharp peak. But we can say that the window is narrowing rapidly. The effects of global oil depletion will depend greatly on the response from governments and on the scale of investment in new energy technologies."

Meanwhile, the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol, where Nigeria's gas project was registered is working towards green house gas emission reduction from projects in developing countries. These projects are registered and monitored under the UN so that these reductions can be sold to developed countries that have emission limits.

The Ovade-Ogharafe project, which is an initiative of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and Pan Ocean Oil, is designed to reduce green house gas emission by more than two million tonnes of carbon dioxide yearly.

Chairman of Pan Ocean Oil Corporation, operators of the project, Chief Festus Fadeyi, said in a statement yesterday that the project was the largest CDM project in Africa and would provide 135 million standard cubic feet per day for electricity at full capacity.

He said that the gas which otherwise would have been flared will be sold to developed countries to generate revenue for the country.

"The CDM registration has taken more than four years of efforts that were led by Carbon Limits of Norway. The credits will be sold to NUON, the Dutch state utility, so that the carbon emissions reductions that occur in Nigeria will help the Netherlands meet its obligation under the Kyoto Protocol," he said.

Fadeyi explained that the project had important local environmental benefits such as reduced emission of dangerous gases like Nitrogen Oxides, and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs).

He noted that this would improve the working conditions of the employees and the living standards of the nearby community.

Nigeria is among the top 20 countries in the world that flare gas. Others are Russia, Iran, Iraq, Angola, Qatar, Algeria, Venezuela, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Libya, Brazil, Mexico, the United States, Canada and the UK.

Nigeria flares more gas than any other country except Russia, as the country burns 2.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day, losing $2.5 billion yearly due to lack of infrastructure to harness it.

The country was among over 160 nations that met in Kyoto, Japan, from December 1 to 11 1997, to negotiate binding limitations on emission of gases for the developed nations, pursuant to the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change of 1992.

The outcome of the meeting was the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in February 2005. The developed nations agreed to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, relative to the levels emitted in 1990. The countries agreed to reduce emissions from 1990 levels by 6 per cent during the period 2008 to 2012.

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