20120212
AP
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Al-Qaida's decision to formally extend its terror franchise to what once was a nationalist movement in Somalia may only be a desperate joining of hands to prop up two militant groups that are both losing popular support and facing increasingly deadly military attacks, analysts said Friday.

Somalia's main militant group, al-Shabab, and al-Qaida have been patting each other on the back for years. On Thursday, al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri formalized the relationship by giving "glad tidings" that al-Shabab had joined al-Qaida.

Al-Shabab, which began as a movement to oust Ethiopian troops from Somalia some six years ago, has long been using terror tactics like suicide bombings and car bombings against the weak Somali government and African Union troops in Mogadishu.

The group also has hosted al-Qaida and other foreign fighters with experience in Iraq and the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.

Al-Qaida also could seek to utilize several dozen U.S. citizens — mostly of Somali descent — among al-Shabab's ranks who U.S. officials fear could use their American passports to travel back to the U.S. and carry out attacks.

The Somali government dismissed Thursday's announcement as non-news, given the close ties between al-Shabab and al-Qaida over the years.

Abdi Rashid, a Somalia expert, said it's not clear what benefit al-Qaida gets out of the newly announced partnership, given that al-Shabab has been losing large chunks of territory to the East African militaries fighting it in Somalia.

Only a year ago, al-Shabab held sway in most of Mogadishu and much of south-central Somalia. But the group is now losing its grip on the country.

"For me the message they are sending is clear. It is basically an admission that their conventional militarily capabilities probably cannot recover so the only way forward they have in the so-called jihad is to merge with al-Qaida in the terror campaign," said Rashid, a former Somalia analyst with the International Crisis Group who is setting up an independent policy forum.

Al-Shabab leaders have pledged allegiance to al-Qaida in the past, releasing a video in 2009 called "At Your Service Osama!" The same year, the late al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden released a video in which he made encouraging comments about the Somali insurgency.

Rashid said that al-Qaida has lost power in recent years as well.

"Not only has its leaders been completely decimated by U.S. strikes in Pakistan and Afghanistan but they have lost whatever public support they had in Africa and the Middle East. The Arab Spring is testimony to the fact that the gravity they once had is probably over."

In remarks published for the first time this week, the head of Britain's Office for Security and Counter Terrorism said the U.K. judged the threat from al-Qaida to have dramatically waned, and overall support for Islamist terrorist organizations to have weakened.

"Al-Qaida is no longer the organization it was. It is at its weakest state since 9/11, and it is possible to talk of the demise of parts of al-Qaida in a way that we could not have done if we had been having this conversation even a year ago," Charles Farr told lawmakers in a private committee hearing in November. A partial excerpt was released at Britain's Parliament this week.

"I think opinion is changing in the Muslim majority world as well, generally, against terrorism and against terrorist organizations," he said.

Al-Shabab is being hit from three sides in Somalia. In Mogadishu, African Union forces from Uganda and Burundi have largely pushed al-Shabab out of the capital, though they still can carry out terror attacks. Kenyan forces who moved into Somalia in October are pressuring al-Shabab from the south, and Ethiopian forces are pressuring them from the west.

That pressure — along with a drop in popular support because of the harsh, Taliban-style social rules the group imposes — are among the reasons al-Shabab wanted the new al-Qaida brand name, said Abdi Hassan, a former al-Shabab fighter.

"They are worried about their future," Hassan said. "They want to be able to join other al-Qaida forces when they are defeated in Somalia."

Al-Shabab is only the latest al-Qaida franchise to join the movement started by bin Laden in the late 1980s. A militant group in Iraq named Tawhid wa Jihad became al-Qaida in Iraq after an announcement similar to al-Zawahiri's on Thursday.

The group also has branches in North Africa — Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb — and in Yemen — Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula. That last group is based only a short boat ride from Somalia, and Hassan said that several foreign fighters once based in Somalia have fled there following the deaths of several al-Qaida leaders in Somalia in recent years.

Several analysts noted that the new partnership internationalizes al-Qaida's message even more. Adjoa Anyimadu, a researcher at the Africa program at Chatham House in London, said al-Qaida may be attracted to al-Shabab's story line of struggle to free an Islamic country from Western influence.

Referring to al-Zawahri's issuance of "glad tidings" to al-Shabab, Somalia Information Minister Abdulkadir Hussein Mohamed said the announcement was also glad tidings for the Somali government.

"The Somali government is actually very pleased that the time for al-Shabab to masquerade as an indigenous Somali-Islamic organization is gone forever," he said. "The whole international community knows now what we here in Somalia knew for a long time and should join our fight against al-Qaida in Somalia unreservedly."

Al-Shabab's most spectacular international terror attack occurred in July 2010 while crowds watched the World Cup final on TV in Kampala, Uganda. Bombs exploded at two locations, killing 76 people.

Since Kenya's military moved into Somalia in October, al-Shabab has threatened to attack the Kenyan capital of Nairobi, and Anyimadu said that the al-Qaida merger could raise the risk of an attack.

"They have shown the capacity and the skill and I think the Kampala attack was clearly — if you want to call it this — a rite of passage," Abdi said. "While I'm not discounting the possibility of some kind of attack to show 'We are worthy' of being part of the fold, I don't think one can make that link immediately."

Magnus Ranstorp of the Swedish National Defence College said the two terror groups joined together because they need one another. He said it was possible al-Shabab would change its focus to meet al-Qaida's broader agenda.

"This is a way for al-Zawahiri to maintain his relevance," he said. "It's obvious that they (al-Qaida) are putting more efforts into North Africa, with AQIM, but also in the belt of instability and insecurity — Yemen and Somalia."