As the world’s best football teams battle it out in the stadiums, the ruling party’s factions slug it out behind closed doors
As South Africa opens the World Cup tournament on 11 June, the most important national event since the 1994 elections, most of the visiting football fans will be blissfully unaware of the growing factional rivalries within the governing African National Congress. Yet for ANC-loyalists, the battles between the business-minded nationalist faction and their communist and trades unionist rivals may be more gripping than a Brazil versus Spain final. The expected 300,000 visitors will see the workings of Africa’s biggest economy and enjoy the benefits of the 30 billion rand (US$3.9 bn.) that the national government has spent on the tournament, plus the R9 bn. spent by the provinces.
That bought ten impressive new or revamped stadiums, rebuilt airports and many new roads across the country, as well as the brand new rail link, Gautrain, between the airport and the Sandton business district, north of Johannesburg. Economists debate the benefit this will bring to South Africans – as opposed to the contractors who have enjoyed a bonanza over the past five years. The World Cup spending is about 1.6% of the country’s gross domestic product over the past two years, so it is much smaller than the sort of fiscal stimulus Asian or European finance ministries have used to counter the effects of the global financial slowdown.
Yet the World Cup expenditure has countered the effects of the slowdown by holding back the already bad unemployment figures (more than 25% of the potential workforce) and giving a fillip to consumer spending. Sceptics claim that spending on big events such as the Cup and the Olympics rarely produces a viable economic return. It may be different in South Africa, where the economy will benefit from the better roads and airports, and the magnificent new stadiums will provide a popular venue for other international tournaments.
Visitors may be impressed by the accoutrements of its modern economy but South Africa is not about to take off from its steady growth path. The impressive Finance Minister <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... le/id/1118/Pravin-Gordhan"> Pravin Gordhan projects GDP growth of 2.3% this year and 3.2% next year. To cut unemployment, raise living standards and improve public services, the economy would have to grow by at least 6% a year.
Healthy disagreements
The ever louder disagreements on policy are probably a good thing, says Standard Bank’s Chief Economist Goolam Ballim, because they show an underlying confidence in the economy. A decade ago, under President <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... -profile/id/2/Thabo-Mbeki"> Thabo Mbeki, there was no such debate because the ANC government was preoccupied with paying off the massive debts inherited from the apartheid era and showing its capacity for fiscal responsibility. It may also have been because Mbeki presided over the scene like a stern headmaster.
President <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... -profile/id/69/Jacob-Zuma"> Jacob Zuma is no headmaster but increasingly he is forced to referee the ANC’s squabbling factions. The latest battle is particularly delicate for him. One of his closest political allies, the Communications Minister and former army chief, General <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... ile/id/403/Siphiwe-Nyanda"> Siphiwe Nyanda, was demanding that the party discipline <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... le/id/149/Zwelinzima-Vavi"> Zwelinzima Vavi, General Secretary of the Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) for criticising the ‘lifestyles’ and ‘business interests’ of some leading figures in the governing party.
This spat goes to the heart of the party battle pitting the business nationalists such as Nyanda and ANC Youth League (ANCYL) President Julius Malema against Vavi, Higher Education Minister Blade Nzimande and ANC Secretary General <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... file/id/96/Gwede-Mantashe"> Gwede Mantashe (AC Vol 51 No 8). The battle is more about building personal power bases in the run up to 2012’s ANC congress, when the party will choose its new leadership, and less about ideology. Both groups have their criticisms of the steady pro-market approach of Finance Minister Gordhan and <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... file/id/398/Trevor-Manuel"> Trevor Manuel, who runs the National Planning Commission (AC Vol 51 No 10).
After some awkward discussions, the ANC National Working Committee rebuffed Nyanda’s request on the grounds that Vavi was speaking on behalf of Cosatu, over which the ANC has no control. Nyanda, who has been named in several procurement scandals, is now threatening to sue Vavi for defamation.
One calculation Zuma has to make is which is the more dispensable group: Nyanda-Malema or Vavi-Mantashe. Both groups claim they contributed hugely to Zuma’s stunning win against Mbeki for the ANC presidency at the Polokwane conference of December 2007. The question is who will be most important to him at the 2012 congress, where he may seek a second term as ANC President. The factions remain fluid but the tide is running against the business nationalists. Late last month, Malema narrowly escaped being ‘redeployed’ outside South Africa, as punishment for bringing the ANC into disrepute. He had been called to a party disciplinary hearing for several offences.
He had supported Zimbabwean President <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... ile/id/3045/Robert-Mugabe"> Robert Mugabe’s land reform programme, sung ‘Kill the Boer’, evicted a BBC journalist from a press conference and ridiculed President Zuma, saying he was worse than Mbeki. His left-wing opponents had wanted him out of the way until after the national conference in 2012, to remove him from the fierce succession battle that will be decided there.
We hear that Mantashe, who is both ANC General Secretary and Chairman of the South African Communist Party, had proposed that Malema’s sentence be suspended on condition that he be sent off at once to a junior job in South Africa’s embassy in China or Cuba. The SACP and Cosatu had demanded his suspension until the congress. Yet the business nationalists rallied to Malema and he ended up with a mild reprimand and an order to attend anger management classes.
Notable among the pro-Malema faction were ANC Treasurer Mathews Phosa, who wants help with his own bid for the presidency of both party and nation, and <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... file/id/174/Tokyo-Sexwale"> Tokyo Sexwale, the similarly ambitious Human Settlements Minister, who has helped to finance Malema and other ANCYL leaders. From a powerful political dynasty, Defence Minister <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... 45/Lindiwe-Nonceba-Sisulu"> Lindiwe Nonceba Sisulu has entered the presidential contest and also supported Malema. So did <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... ile/id/474/Billy-Masetlha"> Billy Masetlha, former head of the National Intelligence Agency, a key figure among the party’s informal African nationalists, and of course Gen. Nyanda backed his young ally.
Backing Motlanthe
Deputy President <b://www.africa-confidential.com/wh ... e/id/95/Kgalema-Motlanthe"> Kgalema Motlanthe, a contender for the presidency, wanted the outright suspension of Malema. So did the rising group aligned to the ANC’s Gauteng provincial chairman, Paul Mashatile, the ‘Alexandria Mafia’ of businessmen and women with their roots in that township. We hear they have pledged support for Motlanthe’s presidential bid. After his re-election early this month, Mashatile challenged Zuma, saying ‘no leader is guaranteed a second term’.
That outraged Zuma, who had already demoted Mashatile to Deputy Culture Minister, removing him from the powerful, lucrative premiership of Gauteng. At Polokwane, when the party elected Zuma as its President, Mashatile had privately supported Motlanthe, not Zuma.
Nimble legal footwork by Phosa, who was the ANC’s legal chief before he became Treasurer, rescued Malema. Members accused of violating ANC rules may be legally represented by another member in ‘good standing’. Phosa took Malema aside and proposed that he accept a plea bargain for three of the four charges against him, including that of bringing the ANC into disrepute. On the fourth charge of criticising Zuma, Phosa advised Malema to apologise and he did so, although his bellicose intention had been to deny all charges. This was meant to be a compromise after which both sides could walk away with dignity, with Zuma’s authority restored. Phosa’s presidential ambitions got a boost, too, as his former opponent Malema now owes him a debt.
Malema has since told ANCYL members in KwaZulu-Natal that he came out of his disciplinary hearing ‘not bitter but bolder and stronger’. There were, he said, ‘people spreading lies’ about him, who wanted to succeed Zuma. His allies are fighting back. The ANCYL’s National Executive Committee says it will demand that the party’s NEC overturn its ruling and it intends to ask the National General Council to do so in September.
This ANCYL faction blames Mantashe for ‘masterminding’ its hero’s humiliation and wants to vote him out at the 2012 congress. Yet the ANC’s left-wing partners, Cosatu and the SACP, have vowed to get Mantanshe re-elected, as part of their campaign to take control of the party. They have yet to decide whom to back for ANC President. The Youth League wants Fikile Mbalula, the Deputy Police Minister, to replace Mantashe but has not yet decided whether to back Zuma’s re-election.
ANC sources tell us they plan to break up Malema’s base in ANCYL, which will elect new leaders at provincial conferences this year. He needs support from a majority of those leaders, so his opponents back his rivals. Next year, the ANCYL is due to elect its own new President and Malema’s Deputy, Andile Lungisa, will challenge him. So the League is divided, with outsiders financing and boosting whichever side will back their presidential bids in the senior ANC.
Under Malema, the ANCYL is in disarray. Four of its nine provincial structures are squabbling and those in the North West and Western Cape have recently been disbanded. In April, the Limpopo provincial conference disintegrated into violence, with Malema accused of rigging the votes after his ally Frans Moswane was pushed through at the expense of the more popular Lehlohonolo Masoga.
In Limpopo, Malema has suffered another setback. Parliament’s Portfolio Committee on Mining has blocked the sale of a stake in ASA Metals, a chromite mining and ferrochrome smelting company, held by Limpopo Economic Development Enterprises (Limdev). The development arm of the provincial government had hoped to get R700 mn. for selling its stake to black economic empowerment partners.
The deal was cancelled on the recommendation of the National Union of Mineworkers, with backing from Malema (who, elsewhere, calls for nationalisation of the mines). This is a national issue. Last August, the cabinet said state-owned mining assets should not be sold, pending a decision on the establishment of a state mining company. Yet Limdev and the provincial government were getting ready to sell 30% of the 40% stake in ASA Metals – to some of their business associates. Now Gordhan’s former colleagues in the SA Revenue Service are putting Limpopo’s officials under scrutiny, with a new audit of all transactions, a move which Malema’s local allies complain is a witch hunt.
Source: http://www.africa-confidential.com/ar ... ll-fever%2c-faction-fever
