President Jonathan is slowly winning over the governors and party barons - but time is short

The arithmetic is not right yet but Goodluck Jonathan is making steady progress in his bid for the candidacy of his party in next year's presidential elections. Last week the leaders of the six states in the 'South-South' - Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers - vowed support for his campaign for the presidency. It was not a forgone conclusion given the prickly relations between Jonathan and the six governors from his region.

Sceptics want to know to whom Jonathan is in political hock. So far he has managed to rely on a diverse team of advisors - former Inspector General of Police Muhammadu Dikko Yusufu and businessman Bamanga Tukur from the north, General Theophilus Danjuma from the Middle Belt and former Commonwealth Secretary General Emeka Anyaoku - without alienating important constituencies. One weakness, according to insiders, is Jonathan's frequent consulting of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who has lost much of the support that propelled him to power in 1999 and is seen as a liability in the north.

The initially lukewarm reception for Jonathan in his own bailiwick, the Niger Delta, was awkward. He was less known there than some of the other governors who said he was not an election winner.

Six months ago when President Umaru Yar'Adua was fighting for life, most of the South-South governors refused to back Jonathan's claim for a formal elevation from Vice-President to Acting President. The problem was the People's Democratic Party (PDP)'s informal system of rotating the presidency between the six regions of the country: this means that if Jonathan gets the presidency this year, other South-South politicians may have to wait 48 years for the region's next chance.

The switch in the South-South view of Jonathan reflects his cautious use of power during this year's interregnum. He has also had some political luck and a decent inheritance from Yar'Adua: the militants' amnesty in the Niger Delta has held, just (see next feature); the electoral reforms and committees inherited are going ahead; world oil and gas prices are strong and stabilise the economy; the banks are much stronger after the consolidations and clean-up; and there may even be some halting progress on electric power before next year's elections.

That has helped but opposition is growing in the run up to primary elections for the ruling PDP. Many critics hide behind sectional interests. The turfing out of Yar'Adua apparatchiks such as economic advisor Tanimu Yakubu and national security advisor Abdullahi Sarki Mukhtar rang a few alarms in the north although few seem concerned about the arrest warrants for lacklustre Attorney General Michael Aondoakaa and former Delta State governor James Ibori, currently in Dubai and facing extradition to Britain.

The important Northern Governors' Forum was divided when it met on 28 July. Ten state governors backed the ruling party's 'zoning arrangements', a euphemism for saying they wanted a northern presidential candidate and opposed Jonathan. Seven northern governors at the forum voted against zoning and said they thought the presidency should be open to all. One governor abstained, and another, Bauchi's Isa Yuguda (son-in-law of the late Yar'Adua), was absent.

We hear that those northern governors with the best chance of launching a credible presidential campaign voted against Jonathan's candidacy: Abubakar Bukola Saraki, one of the wealthiest contenders (Kwara State); Sule Lamido, another ally of Obasanjo (Jigawa); and Ibrahim Shema, who had a difficult relationship with Yar'Adua (Katsina). National Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed Gusau retains a strong interest in the presidency and the delegate from his Zamfara State voted against Jonathan's candidacy.

Northern opponents have another persuasive argument, supported by some Western diplomats, that a Jonathan presidential bid could be presented as a usurping of the north's political rights and exploited accordingly.

Jonathan is ahead on points so far: even his opponents within the top echelons of the PDP are not arguing that it is constitutionally wrong for him to stand. So 13 governors out of 36 are publicly backing him - much will now depend on whether he can win enough Yoruba and Igbo support in the south-west and south-east respectively. The backing of Lagos billionaire Femi Otedola cannot damage Jonathan much in the commercal capital although journalists are already speculating about the quid pro quo.

Time pressures and incumbency will help Jonathan as he prepares his strategy for the PDP national congress, provided he keeps his nerve. His main rival in the party - General Ibrahim Babangida - has provoked strong reactions among his foes, old and new, and his wealthy band of supporters. Few believe that Babangida is doing more than re-establishing himself as a kingmaker but he is still spending lots of money. His supporters put up helpful posters in the north informing Jonathan that 'your good luck is running out'.

There is a tremendous buzz around Babangida's most dedicated opponent - the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Nuhu Ribadu, who is back in Nigeria and is being urged to run by a national coalition of grassroots activists and trades unionists. Some are proposing that elements of the Action Congress (AC) combined with 'progressive factions' from other parties might rally behind a Ribadu ticket. Without doubt, Ribadu has widespread popularity with voters across the country - even if the political elite detests him.

There is little love lost between him and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who was a failed presidential candidate for the AC. Of the other veterans, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari has been drumming up support for his new vehicle, the Congress for Progressive Change, to the detriment of his old allies in the All Nigeria People's Party.

The splintering of parties outside the PDP's outsize umbrella helps the party, makes its winning of the presidency more likely and correspondingly raises the prices of the presidential ticket. In the next few weeks - perhaps on Independence Day on 1 October - Jonathan will make it clear whether he is prepared to pay that price. On present showing the answer is likely to be 'yes'.

Source: http://www.africa-confidential.com