The tight election timetable announced at the beginning of the month is now being questioned again by election officials, civil activists and most of the contesting candidates (AC Vol 51 No 18). The speculation about changing the date of the election was serious enough to persuade President Goodluck Jonathan to delay his departure for the United Nations’ development summit in New York on 21-22 September.
That still has not cleared things up and the new urgency comes from the Chairman of the Independent National Election Commission, Professor Attahiru Jega, who has said the slow progress in procuring and training officials mean the chances of a credible election would improve with a month’s delay. That would have implications for all parties, including how much time they have to pick their candidates.
On 21 September, 50 of the 62 registered parties met INEC to call for a postponement of the vote until April, fearing huge problems with electoral registration and lack of voter education under the current timetable. The timing of primary elections in the governing People’s Democratic Party is of critical importance to Jonathan. As incumbent, he benefits if his rivals have less time to organise a strategy to oppose his bid for the party’s presidential nomination. Over the past week, the PDP field has become crowded, with two new contenders joining the field (see Box).
Regional loyalties are central to the race for the nomination. Under the PDP’s regional power-sharing rules, it is the turn of the north to get the presidential nomination. After months of argument, the PDP National Executive agreed to allow Jonathan, who hails from Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta, to stand but would not endorse his candidacy. This opened the field to rival candidates from the north. Uncharacteristically, the northern politicians had no plan, so a raft of candidates emerged, none of whom can claim to be the true representative of the north.
All of the candidates have held power and the two frontrunners – former military leader General Ibrahim Babangida (aka IBB) and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar – had controversial tenures which saw them forced from power. The best hope for the other two candidates, Kwara State Governor Abubakar Bukola Saraki and the former National Security Advisor, Lieutenant Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, would be for a stalemate between the top three, which might force the party barons to seek a compromise candidate.
Wise men of the north
The northern caucus of the PDP is talking about a council of 17 wise men to choose a consensus northern candidate to compete against Jonathan for the nomination. This would sharply change the arithmetic of the primary nomination, which is currently looking quite good for him. If the council sits, then the key issue is who it picks: most believe it would plump for Gen. Babangida. Despite his unpopularity in the south-west, Babangida’s immense wealth would enable him to run a strong primary campaign against Jonathan and – if successful – organise a national campaign without being too reliant on party coffers.
Sceptics argue that it is all about positioning and carving out a place in the new regime, so the ‘bad luck coalition’ – as some call IBB, Atiku and Gusau – merely want to retain their relevance as kingmakers. As the campaign intensifies and northern sentiment hardens against Jonathan, that is beginning to look like wishful thinking.
In his favour, Jonathan has power of incumbency with all the patronage that implies in Nigeria. The campaign is just beginning and his officials gave out 2 million naira (US$13,000) to 800 local governments to persuade people to back his 18 September declaration party.
If the north fails to rally behind a single candidate, Jonathan would be lfavourite to get the ticket. It is another matter how far one can trust the local, questionable public opinion polls, one of which boldly drew the following helpful conclusions for Jonathan: about 80% of Nigerians support him for the presidency, 87% plan to vote, 73% believe INEC can deliver free and fair elections and 63% want to end the regional zoning of party posts. The lack of scientifically sampled political opinion polling of the type done in Kenya and South Africa is a blight on Nigeria’s political scene.
Should Jonathan fail to win the PDP presidential nomination, Nigeria would enter unknown territory. He could choose to leave the umbrella of the PDP and contest the presidential election for another party or he could ignominiously drop his ambition. Either way, his home region, the Delta, would be in ferment. For a smaller party, Jonathan as incumbent President and controller of state patronage would be quite a catch. By defecting to another party, he would stand a good chance of persuading many PDP loyalists from the Delta and perhaps the Middle Belt to join him. Such a splitting of PDP ranks could start to make the election unpredictable. Better, more honest management of the INEC and some strong opposition presidential candidates may pave the way for a really fiercely contested election.
Such scenarios are exercising the PDP barons. The last thing they want is to split the party and undermine its political dominance. For the past decade, they have preferred backroom deals to open contests: the question is whether Jonathan can cut the necessary deal with his northern rivals, who argue determinedly that it is their turn for the presidency.
The PDP state governors going for a second term are as determined as their presidential counterparts. Cross Rivers State Governor Godswill Akpabio has block-booked all airline tickets to his state convention. We hear that landlords who rent property to opposition candidates are being told to evict them in some states. Although the PDP’s new National Chairman, Okwesilieze Nwodo, had tried to reduce the power of the state governors in the party’s primary elections, they remain critical and no PDP presidential candidate can emerge in the face of opposition from the states.
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