Positions are hardening in both Washington and Khartoum in the lead up to the referenda in the South and Abyei, due in January

Within days of the United Nations' New York meeting on Sudan, the 15-member UN Security Council set off for Kampala, Juba and Khartoum. The 4-10 October trip, led by Britain's UN Ambassador, Sir Mark Lyall Grant, and his counterpart from the United States, Susan E. Rice, signals serious concerns about a return to war in Sudan over the referenda due next January. The tour was meant to send a strong message - at least from Britain, France and the USA - about Khartoum's efforts to obstruct the vote in the South and Abyei.

At the High-Level Meeting on 24 September, both Washington and Khartoum's National Congress Party (NCP) took a sharp new tone over the referenda. Diplomats and politicians in New York sketched out several possible areas of conflict, ranging from Khartoum attacking across the (still undemarcated) North-South border, focusing on Abyei, to sponsoring militias to undermine Southern President Salva Kiir Mayardit's government in Juba.

The USA now says Sudan is a top priority after Afghanistan and Iraq; Britain, which takes the chair of the Security Council next month, says the same. Yet under the Conservative-Liberal Democratic coalition, Britain is taking a more aggressive line on commerce across Africa, with the exception so far of Zimbabwe. On 29 September, it organised an 'Opportunities in Sudan' trade mission under Ambassador Nicholas Kay and invited several NCP officials in London, including Ambassador Abdullah el Azrag, previously Director of the Foreign Ministry's Arab Affairs Department. In July, British Africa Minister Henry Bellingham had declared that London wanted investment in Sudan and distanced himself from US sanctions imposed because of the regime's terrorism links, such as the 1995 attempt on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's life.

US President Barack Obama, though, left no doubt, in his speech to the New York Meeting, that his government would press for the referenda to be held on schedule on 9 January. This signals to the NCP, 'Don't think you can play foul!' commented one US official. It was a strong implicit criticism of Khartoum's tactics. In the days leading up to the meeting, Chinese diplomats were working hard to build support for a deferral of the referendum date or at least agreement for a transition period between the vote and any subsequent secession. Like South Africa's former President Thabo Mbeki, Beijing officials argue that in present circumstances, an immediate secession of the South could spark a political and security crisis - if not outright war - that would damage everyone's interests (including China's oil imports). This ignores the likelihood of instability if the referendum is delayed.

Supporting the south

Washington has been showing stronger support for the Government of South Sudan. Lieutenant General Salva found a welcome at New York think-tanks such as the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Peace Institute for his message that the 9 January referendum date is immovable. Although Salva, who is also Sudan's First Vice-President, told the UN meeting that he opposes a unilateral declaration of independence, Southerners widely expect the GOSS to 'declare UDI' if Khartoum blocks the popular vote.

The main focus of the NCP's efforts is Abyei: it now openly rejects the July 2009 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling on the district, a position launched by Gen. Salah Abdullah Mohamed 'Gosh'. The spearhead of Sudan-US 'intelligence cooperation' was clearly not sidelined when shifted from his post as National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) director last August to Presidential Security Advisor (AC Vol 50 No 17); he now presides over the North-South border issue, too. It was, of course, the NCP which had first asked the Hague-based PCA to rule on the Abyei border, after it had rejected the Abyei Boundaries Commission findings, which it had signed up to under the same the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which governs the impending referenda.

'Forget what we've signed!'

Khartoum's New York delegation, led by Vice-President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha (still powerful despite years of speculation) left no doubts in private talks with US officials that the NCP rejected compromise on Abyei, we hear. 'The NCP clearly has its own priorities,' said one source. 'It's "Forget what we've signed on Abyei!"' A dinner arranged by the US State Department for Ali Osman and his team on 20 September was, we hear, poorly attended and the chill between Khartoum and Washington is spreading again.

The NCP hopes to divide the dominant GOSS party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, over the structure and timing of the two referenda. SPLM Chairman Salva Kiir says the referenda are indivisible. Many Southerners, though, wonder why the South would risk its own referendum for Abyei which is in the North. Nuba members already see the SPLM as having left them isolated: they will remain part of NCP-controlled Northern Sudan, whatever happens in the referendum.

Khartoum seeks to exploit divisions to pressure the SPLM over the Post-Referendum Arrangements. Issues include oil but also the 'soft borders' favoured by the African Union panel that Mbeki leads. These would favour not only reconciliation but also NCP infiltration. Some in the NCP are even floating a five-year interim before full Southern independence, Africa Confidential understands, an absolute non-starter for Southerners.

The GOSS is trying to bring on board as many dissidents as possible to counter Khartoum's tactics. Officials have been talking to militia leader Gen. George Athor Deng (now among those pardoned), serial agreement-signer Lam Akol Ajawin and Bona Malwal Madut Riing, once a major NCP critic but now ensconced in Khartoum as Presidential Advisor.

Intelligence officers from the GOSS armed forces, the Sudan People's Liberation Army, say ten 'units' comprising 'tens of thousands' of Khartoum's troops are on the North-South border, said an SPLM source. On the other side, the SPLA is arming and training. Obama flagged his support, telling the UN meeting: 'And we're leading the effort to transform the Sudan People's Liberation Army into a professional security force, including putting an end to the use of children as soldiers.' South Africa and Britain are among countries helping the SPLA transform itself from a guerrilla army into a professional force. Southern neighbours Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda may play a key role, given their economic and strategic interest in the South's independence. Should Khartoum return to war, the South could expect diplomatic and military support from its neighbours. Washington would be ready to support them, we understand.

As many warn of the threat of war, including the normally cautious, such as Episcopal Church Archbishop Daniel Deng, visiting London this week, and his British counterpart, Rowan Williams, some are looking beyond Abyei. The Bahr el Ghazal-Southern Darfur border is thinly populated and Darfur armed opposition groups use it to go South for talks and training, while Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army deploys there when Khartoum calls. If war resumes, this will matter more. Juba has good relations with 'all Darfur groups', observed one SPLM source, and if Khartoum attacks 'after the South's independence', it will once again be able to support them against Khartoum.

  Stirring up trouble

Other kinds of violence threaten. At greatest risk are ordinary Southerners in the North, where they may number four million, mostly in the capital. Government media have been depicting Southerners as unwelcome and as illegal foreigners who must be sent home. Advocacy group Refugees International in a June report cited fears of 'large-scale revenge killing of Southerners in the North if even a single Northerner were harmed in the South'. Such fears recall the killing of Southerners in the capital in August 2005 and 1964. Such violence would be officially triggered but be depicted as spontaneous.

Late in September, Information Minister and regime Spokesman Kamal Mohamed Obeid declared that Southerners would lose their right to be Northern citizens if the South opted for separation. Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismael, first Secretary General of the People's Arab Islamic Conference, later seen as cradle of Al Qaida, called for people to join militias to fight. Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Kurti, founder of the People's Defence Force militias that spearheaded the NCP jihad in the Nuba Mountains, South and Darfur, belittled Southern concerns.

In a 28 September interview with Asharq al Awsat, he responded to a question about Southern objections to being labelled 'abid' (slaves): 'It is irresponsible and a travesty that SPLM leaders talk about being insulted as "abids". Sudan is facing a new historical chapter and they talk about being insulted? People have insulted people in every country, and throughout history. The fact that SPLM leaders talk about this proves their short-sightedness, and they need to be more confident in themselves.' On the next day, the Saudi Arabian-financed paper's Editor, Tariq Alhomayed, lambasted the Khartoum regime in his editorial, concluding: 'Here we say that there is no hope in a solution to maintain Sudanese unity, since the wound is much bigger than the band-aid.' Given how much energy it has devoted to cultivating the Saudi royals, this is more damage for the NCP.

In fact, the South sounds increasingly confident. Salva is looking 'fit, engaged...and intellectually acute', observed one Western former official. The Security Council, on its 6 October visit to Juba, will have been clearly told, as one analyst put it, that this is 'a nation in waiting'.

The nation waiting in dread is in Northern Sudan, where the regime is set to intensify its repression whatever the referendum outcome. If the South goes, the main opponents of the Khartoum regime in Darfur, the Nuba Mountains and Eastern Sudan will see a big opposition vacuum. 'Many assume the CPA is only about the South,' said Monim el Gak, at the 4 October launch of Amnesty International's report 'Agents of Fear: the National Security Service in Sudan'. 'Immediately after the [April] elections, the NISS cracked down on civil society,' noted Monim, one of several rights activists tortured in 2008, predicting a repeat of such atrocities. With the help of the Arab-African bloc, the NCP last month tried, but failed, to block the renewal of UN Independent Expert on Human Rights Mohamed Chande Othman's mandate. However, he will not be able to protect Southerners in the North nor protect Southern leaders from assassination, another weapon in the NCP arsenal.

Source: http://www.africa-confidential.com