The new constitution offers the President another twelve years in power but breaking with tradition, he is now actively campaigning for election

For the first time in his 31 years in power, Angola’s President, José Eduardo dos Santos, gave a State of the Nation address to the National Assembly in Luanda on 15 October. His decision to do so was doubtless informed by the looming elections in 2012. In the speech – a new feature on the political calendar after the revision of Angola’s constitution in February – Dos Santos acknowledged the challenges of ‘hunger and poverty’ and conceded that the economy had hit serious problems when the price of crude oil fell by over US$100 per barrel.

Despite the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) having polled 82% of the votes in the 2008 election, some in Luanda believe that Dos Santos is nervous about the 2012 elections and the possibility that polling fewer votes than before could make him appear weak. In the speech, broadcast live in its entirety on television and radio, he added that the government’s new priorities included improving the quality of life and reforming institutions, especially the judiciary. Days of gushing comments in the state media followed about the President’s extraordinary qualities and vision, along with a march pledging support through the centre of Luanda a week later.

The main opposition party, the União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola (UNITA), dismissed Dos Santos’ speech as blatant electioneering. After its trouncing in the 2008 elections, the party is still licking its wounds. Yet its leader, Isaías Samakuva, is widely expected to stand down before the next elections, sparking a bitter fight for the leadership. Although Dos Santos does not appear to be under direct pressure from within his own party, he has started to focus on economic policy reorganisation. He has ordered that the Banco Naçional de Angola (BNA), the central bank, be placed under the responsibility of the Finance Ministry in new banking legislation and it is putting commercial banks under pressure by using the new anti-money-laundering laws to restrict foreign exchange transactions.

Nunes, another successor
Amid this economic confusion, the one man known for his competence and who is credited with the success of the negotiations that led to last year’s $1.4 billion IMF standby agreement loan has found himself out of a job. The official reason for the sacking of Minister of State for Economic Co-ordination Manuel Nunes Junior was an ‘incompatibility’ between this position and his membership of the MPLA Executive Committee. Justino Pinto de Andrade, who heads the newly-formed Bloco Democratico, says Nunes is being groomed to succeed Dos Santos and so had to be taken out of the limelight temporarily. Much will depend on what job Nunes gets next; the survival record of other potential successors is not good. Many others simply think that Nunes had outgrown his post and was seen as a threat to Dos Santos, Hélder Vieira Dias ‘Kopelipa’, Director of the National Reconstruction Office, and the third Minister of State, Carlos Feijo.

Nunes Junior’s exit in what was the third cabinet reshuffle in less than a year looks like a setback for reform. He has been replaced by the unimpressive Abraao Gourgel. José de Lima Massano, former Chairman of Angola’s largest commercial bank, Banco Africano de Investimentos, has replaced Gourgel as BNA Governor. Bankers in Luanda hope that Massano can win back for the BNA some of the powers lost to the Finance Ministry. Also in that reorganisation, long-serving Interior Minister, Roberto Leal Monteiro ‘Ngongo’ was sacked amid a scandal over the illegal extradition to Saõ Tomé of a Portuguese businessman, Jorge Oliveira. Another official in transition may be Aguinaldo Jaime, who was accused by the United States Senate of attempting to transfer $50 million of BNA funds to private accounts in 2002, when he was Governor of the BNA (AC Vol 51 No 4). Those charges do not appear to have damaged Jaime within the regime.

Now he is tipped for – or is at least said to be working on – a comeback into central government from his current outpost at Agência Nacional para o Investimento Privado, a glorified tax advice centre for potential overseas investors. There are also reports in the Finance Ministry that former Finance Minister José Pedro de Morais, who fell out with Dos Santos, could also re-emerge in government. In a further centralisation of power, the Office of the Presidency under Carlos Feijo will manage relations with the IMF, a proposed bond sale and commercial debt repayment plan. As the President draws the reins of power ever closer, centralising decisions within the inner circle, some suggest that if oil revenues pick up strongly a break from the IMF with its demands for transparency and accountability cannot be ruled out.

Dos Santos’ new political sensitivities, which drove him to introduce the new constitution with its centralisation of powers and the abolition of direct presidential elections, has sent shockwaves down the chain of command. Government ministers and senior officials are increasingly afraid to take independent decisions. The end result is more bureaucracy, delayed reform, more corruption and ultimately a more powerful president, who was technically never elected. The only poll he faced, in 1992, ended unresolved when UNITA returned to war after challenging the first round of results. Under the new rules Dos Santos could remain in power until 2022. 

Source: http://www.africa-confidential.com