Election winner Alpha Condé’s promise of national reconciliation is put to the test as his opponents’ supporters take their disputes to the street

The first test started within hours of the announcement on 15 November of the victory of Alpha Condé in the second round of the presidential election with 52.5%, when supporters of the losing candidate, Cellou Dalein Diallo, rejected the result and took to the streets. Despite Condé’s offer of a ‘brotherly hand’ to Diallo ‘to build a united and prosperous Guinea’, neither leader has been able to restrain their supporters. By 17 November, local human rights groups were reporting that ten people had died in street battles and 200 had been injured.

Although Condé, of the Rassemblement pour le Peuple Guinéen (RPG), has tried to play down fears of a worsening confrontation between his Malinké people (35% of the population) and the Peulh/Fulani (40%) who mainly support Diallo, the outgoing military regime under General Sekouba Konaté has declared a state of emergency. Few believe this is a device for the military to stay on, given Konaté’s apparent determination to hand over power. We hear, though, that Condé is urging him to take a role in government, perhaps to oversee the long talked about, far-reaching military reforms. Some military cooperation will be needed to help stabilise the newly elected government, but already the army is being accused of victimising Diallo’s supporters.

Condé’s skilful assembling of his winning ‘arc-en-ciel’ (rainbow) alliance surprised sceptics who argued that his years in exile had left him out of touch with local political sentiment. He has recruited two former Prime Ministers to his team, François Lonsény Fall and Lansana Kouyaté (former Executive Secretary of the Economic Community of West African States) and a former Finance Minister, Ibrahima Kassory Fofana.

Insiders suggest Condé may offer senior jobs to both Diallo and his ally, another respected former Prime Minister, Sidya Touré. One observer remarked that Condé would have to ‘find ways to accommodate another 14 presidential candidates in his new administration – having brought into his campaign most of the candidates defeated in the first round of voting. Condé talks about national reconciliation but will want to build as stable a government as possible.’ For now, civil activists say his stock runs high as a ‘man who has nearly been killed several times for standing up for his political beliefs.’

Individuals and agendas

To succeed, Condé must knit together an alliance of 16 parties along with some awkward individuals, their interests and agendas. Fall and Kouyaté are useful to have around. Both dispose of impressive international diplomatic networks and a reasonably clean image. They are likely to get senior jobs, as will Ibrahima Fofana, who in the 1990s ran the Finance Ministry until a falling out with Conté, after which he went into academia in the United States. Also in the running would be Hadja Saran Daraba, a former minister in one of Conté’s many short-lived cabinets, who won plaudits as a peace activist in the Mano River Union.

Then there are the more awkward allies who, having gained power and influence under military regimes, were able to deliver some key constituencies and districts to Condé’s election campaign. Former hardline Interior Minister Kiridi Bangoura, who became Condé’s campaign manager, is a case in point. Another is Alpha Ibrahima Keira, who was close to the underperforming Texas oil firm Hyperdynamics. A colourful business acquaintance, Gambian-based Mamadou Sylla, is also a liability, as is Mohamed Touré, grandson and chief apologist of founding President Ahmed Sékou Touré.

Papa Koly Kourouma proved electorally helpful in the Guinée forestière constituencies, but his close ties to the former military leader, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara make any role in government highly problematic.

Source: http://www.africa-confidential.com