Hardliners in Zanu PF are trying to provoke Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC into quitting the coalition government and precipitate elections under an environment that still favours the former sole ruling party, analysts said last week.

With the security forces, war veterans, youth militia and flawed electoral laws on his side, President Robert Mugabe - a known political schemer - believes his chances of beating Tsvangirai will be enhanced if the elections were held as soon as possible.

The 86-year-old leader has already declared that elections will be held next year with or without the new constitution that was expected to level the electoral field.

The Constitutional Parliamentary Select Committee (Copac) has just finished gathering people's views to include in the supreme law but it is unlikely that it would be complete by the time the polls are held mid next year.

If Tsvangirai pulls out of the coalition there should be an election to end the impasse whose effects are already being felt.

In the past two months, tension between Mugabe and Tsvangirai has crippled the operations of the government of national unity (GNU), which had brought relief to millions of Zimbabweans who, for the past decade, have been wallowing in abject poverty.

Mugabe stoked the fire by unilaterally appointing provincial governors, judges, ambassadors, and other senior public officers without consulting both Tsvangirai and his deputy Arthur Mutambara of the smaller faction of the MDC as stipulated in the Global Political Agreement (GPA).

A livid Tsvangirai, whom Mugabe has treated as a junior partner in the unity government since its formation two years ago, refused to recognise all the appointments.

Ever since, Tsvangirai has skipped several Cabinet meetings as well as their Monday meetings protesting Mugabe's intransigence.

He has called Mugabe a "crook" and a "dishonest person", who continues to violate the GPA.

Last week, security agents tried to subject Deputy Prime Ministers Thokozani Khupe and Arthur Mutambara to humiliating body searches as they entered a Cabinet meeting in another demonstration of the rising tension in the fragile coalition.

But analysts say by showing agitation, Tsvangirai could be playing into Mugabe's grand plan.

Tsvangirai has written several protest letters to South African President Jacob Zuma, the facilitator in the dialogue, but nothing has come out of the complaints

One analyst said Mugabe was deliberately creating a crisis because he knows that disputes, under the current political scenario, favour the incumbent.

"When there is dispute power resides with the incumbent," he said. "So if they see that the elections could be peaceful, they will deliberately create another dispute so that they retain power as the incumbent."

University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer, John Makumbe, said Mugabe was doing everything possible to frustrate Tsvangirai to quit the coalition to facilitate an early election under the current constitution.

He said under the current political arrangement, if one party pulls out of government, elections were supposed to be held immediately.

Makumbe, a fierce critic of Mugabe, said the veteran ruler was not confident that he will retain his Presidential Powers in the new constitution.

"Mugabe wants elections under the current constitution as it favours him because he can still use his Presidential Powers as he did in 2008," said Makumbe.

In 2008, Mugabe used his presidential powers to allow police to enter polling stations despite protests by civil society organisations who said the regulations threatened the freedom of potential voters.

Zanu PF also wants early elections because they are worried about Mugabe's deteriorating health.

The party wants the elections held while Mugabe is still alive as he is seen as the only one in Zanu PF who can match Tsvangirai in the polls at the moment.

Apart from that, said another analyst, Zanu PF used the Copac outreach meetings to gauge its ability to mobilise people, whether by force or otherwise.

"Zanu PF got confidence after seeing the level of fear in people during the Copac meetings.

"So they want to harvest from that fear."

In what appears to be early preparations for elections, Mugabe has deployed soldiers in rural areas to do "ground work" for him.

Last week, they prevented the MDC from holding rallies in many parts of the country.

The police have also tried to block Tsvangirai's consultative meetings with his supporters but Mugabe can address his supporters anytime and anywhere he wants.

This scenario is reminiscent of the violent 2008 elections, in which the MDC claims that over 200 of its supporters were murdered by state security agents as they aided Mugabe in the polls.

Political analyst Takura Zhangazha said the tension between Mugabe and Tsvangirai was detrimental to the smooth running of the already shaky inclusive government.

"On one hand Mugabe is more concerned about his divided party, which is bracing not only for a tough election next year but organising its national conference next month," Zhangazha said.

"On the other, Tsvangirai is holding national consultative meetings with his supporters across the country to prepare for the do-or-die elections."

Even if elections were held and Mugabe loses, analysts said, it was unlikely that he will hand over power to the winner.

They analysts said Mugabe believes that with the discovery of diamonds in the country, he can now survive sanctions imposed on him and his cronies through selling the gems to the East, even without the certification of the Kimberley Process.

In 2008, Mugabe lost the first round of the presidential poll to Tsvangirai but the MDC leader fell just short of the required 50 plus one vote required to unseat the octogenarian leader.

Tsvangirai refused to participate in the run-off citing violence.

Source: http://allafrica.com