Stronger economies, better education and technology are driving more political change and unrest

Expect turbulence. As well as sound advice from pilots to passengers on aircraft taking off from Kisangani to Kinshasa in Congo-Kinshasa, such warnings look apposite for the year ahead in Africa. There are no signs that the pace of political and economic change on the continent will slacken. The reverse looks true with more than 30 presidential and parliamentary elections over the next 12 months, and rising social unrest of four of the biggest economies: Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Kenya.

There are few direct causal links between the revolutions that have transformed North Africa in the past year, but there are plenty of important indirect effects. The biggest of these is the demonstration effect: the overthrow of leaders such as Hosni Mubarak, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali and Moammar el Gadaffi has reinforced the determination of Africans to oust autocratic and incompetent regimes.That means more youthful activism: 70% of Africans are under 30 years of age and are far less tolerant of rampant inequality and state abuse of power than their parents were. They are quicker to join up events and mobilise: Egyptians and Libyans were inspired by the courage of the Tunisian revolutionaries. Tahrir Square has come to signify dissent across Africa. Even the United States-launched ‘Occupy’ movement has prompted solidarity demonstrations in Lagos and Johannesburg.

On the streets and in the parliament buildings, there is a new confidence among Africa’s oppositionists. Partly, this is based on some of the economic successes of the past decade: average gross domestic product growth of over 5%, rising incomes, widening consumer markets and faster urbanisation. Those changes are rattling the old order, rooted in patronage and the urban-rural divide.

Each year, 20 million more people move to live in cities: by 2025, half of Africa will live in towns or cities. Communications technology helps, first in spreading information about political and economic alternatives, but also as a tool to organise protests and outwit security agents.

With cheaper and faster broadband internet and more sophisticated mobile devices available across Africa, these battles will intensify. The generally stronger economies are critical in promoting political change. On the back of a decade of growth, increasing literacy and improving health, expectations are rising. Civic activists and trades unionists in Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria reinforce each other’s demands for more jobs, better education and health services – and an end to the mismanagement of water and electricity utilities.

Accountability has moved from being a buzzword in World Bank reports to a demand on the streets. People want to know what governments are doing with the increasing revenues they are collecting from state employees and consumers, as well as the higher royalties secured from oil and mining companies. As countries such as Ghana and Zambia are redesignated as lower-middle income countries and foreign aid declines sharply, their governments will depend increasingly on internal revenues. That will reinforce the link between taxation and representation.

Source: AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL