Jonathan is getting a grip on his party and perhaps preparing to run again, despite his northern rivals

On the eve of the national convention of the governing People’s Democratic Party on 24 March, former President Olusegun Obasanjo deplored the lack of discipline in the PDP. Loyalists were squabbling over positions and pursuing personal vendettas, he observed in a conciliatory tone. When he was President, in 1999-2007, Obasanjo did things differently, sending in the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and security agencies to shove the dissidents into line.

At last his successor, President Goodluck Jonathan, has started to use his enormous powers to hunt down perceived enemies.Take Timipre Sylva, the ousted Governor of Bayelsa State in the oil-rich Delta, homeland of his predecessor, Jonathan. In February’s governorship election there, Jonathan openly campaigned for the winner, Henry Seriake Dickson, whose overwhelming qualification was that he was Jonathan’s man. All other contestants fell in behind him.

On 24 March, the President pulled off the same trick and Alhaji Bamangar Tukur emerged as the PDP’s National Chairman. Three days earlier, he had been trounced by Musa Babayo in the primary in his own north-east zone, to which the chair had been assigned. Party enforcers, led by the President’s Chief of Staff, Chief Mike Oghiadomhe, went in, telling party bosses that Jonathan preferred the 77-year-old Tukur to the younger Musa Babayo. Rival candidates stepped down in favour of Bamangar Tukur.

Among those who got out of the President’s way were Professor Rufai Ahmed Alkali, Alhaji Gambo Lawan, Adamu Bello, Alhaji Ibrahim Bunu, Senator Mohammed Abba-Aji, Ahmed Mu’azu, Ambassador Adamu Danjuma Idris Waziri, Ibrahim Shehu Birma and Babayo himself. Among Tukur’s better-known cheerleaders were the Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and Obasanjo, who, according to presidential insiders, is the real champion of Tukur’s appointment as Chairman.

On his Facebook page, a British-Nigerian historian, Ayo Akinfe, wrote that, at 77, Tukur should be taking a back seat, not the job of party Chairman: ‘Bamangar Tukur, your “appointment” as party chairman just reflects everything wrong with Nigerian politics at the moment...’. Other observers said it was not about Tukur but about the 2015 presidential election. They say that since Atiku Abubakar is back in the party he helped to found, the contest will not be democratic. A key issue is the convention that the party’s presidential candidate (perhaps Abubakar) and its chairman should not come from the same zone.

Second term for Jonathan
Jonathan has not declared his intention to stand in 2015 but his body-language says otherwise and his foot soldiers are awash with resources. A close advisor told Africa Confidential that if the President succeeded in his efforts to reform the oil and gas industry and provide reliable electricity to the country’s 170 million people, then he would have every right to seek a second mandate. As to the north-south tensions involved in a second Jonathan term, the advisor said: ‘The north held the executive for over 40 years; if a Delta president can make some progress in four years, he is entitled to run for a second term and then we hand over to the next candidate from wherever.’ That would once again deny the north a chance of the presidency; a perception which is said to help to fuel the Boko Haram insurgency in the north. For the PDP loyalists in Abuja, it seems almost certain that Jonathan will contest and win: it is almost impossible to defeat an incumbent Nigerian president. The political flexibility seen in Ghana in 2000 and 2008, and last week in Senegal, has not yet reached Nigeria.

Jonathan’s main opponents, northerners insisting that it is their region’s turn for the presidency, are in disarray. The behind-the-scenes wrangling of the chairmanship election points to the fact that the years of ‘one north’ are over. The candidates who stepped down for Tukur did so grudgingly, after promises of board appointments and other favours. Popular discontent is widespread and the fuel subsidy crisis may be far from over. The promised palliative measures have not been seen and the promised buses are not yet on the road.

When Jonathan opened the Dangote Cement factory at Ibeshe in Ogun State last month, he told Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Femi Otedola, Wale Tinubu and other industry captains that he was ready to go anywhere in the country to open factories, because Nigerians needed jobs. Nigeria is still a hard place for business but some regulations that made power distribution so inefficient have been revoked and antiquated railway laws are being tweaked to allow serious private sector investors to come on board, said the Transport Minister, Senator Idris Umar.

Even Okonjo-Iweala, with her reputation as an economic purist, turns out to be more political than many had thought. She is frequently in the media, with a large coterie of both admirers and detractors. At the convention, she sported an outfit with a PDP logo. Yet she is blamed for the fuel-price rise and critics say the economy is not visibly improving, while food prices keep rising.

Her political and diplomatic skills should not be overlooked. Last week, she managed to galvanise South Africa and Angola, both of which had been hostile to Nigeria in recent years, behind her successful bid to become Africa’s candidate for World Bank President.

Agriculture Minister Akinwumi Adesina is well regarded, particularly at home. He has helped to bring in Oklahoma-based Dominion Farms as partner in a mega-project to produce over 300,000 tonnes per year of rice. Also popular on the street is the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Sanusi Lamido Aminu Sanusi, but members of Jonathan’s kitchen cabinet watch his moves closely, wondering whether he may run for the presidency in 2015.

As the PDP top guns genuflected before Jonathan at the national convention, it became apparent that he thinks he can now afford to make a few enemies and may soon reshuffle the cabinet. It would be a miracle if the Petroleum Minister, Diezani Allison-Madueke, kept her job. Tipped to take over is Princess Stella Oduah-Ogiemwonyi, now Aviation Minister and a top PDP financier. If Okonjo-Iweala wins the World Bank presidency, she will leave: her cabinet job is on the line and she was playing to save it at the party convention.

Insecurity has left the front pages but the government’s strategy is not working. It is said that negotiations with Boko Haram have broken down though almost nothing is known about the interlocutors on either side. Whatever other aims Boko Haram may have, one faction at least seems determined to stop Jonathan from standing again for the presidency. That will almost certainly be Jonathan’s intention.

Source: Africa Confidential