20100205
By Tume Ahemba

AWKA, Nigeria (Reuters) - One of Nigeria's politically most turbulent states goes to the polls on Saturday to elect a new governor in a vote seen as a test of the country's ability to hold credible national elections in 2011.

The governorship vote in southeastern Anambra state is the first in a series of state and federal polls culminating in presidential elections next year.

Observers are hoping Africa's most populous nation can avoid a repeat of the sort of chaos seen during the 2007 elections which brought President Umaru Yar'Adua to power, polls marred by widespread ballot-stuffing and voter intimidation.

Yar'Adua promised to reform the system before 2011, but electoral reform bills he sent to the National Assembly have yet to be passed into law and analysts wonder whether much has changed.

"Our elections must enjoy the indelible mark of credibility and acceptability both nationally and internationally ... The Anambra 2010 gubernatorial election is one in a series of rungs in our ladder towards democratic consolidation," Vice President Goodluck Jonathan said late on Thursday.

"This is why we must take the election very seriously and insist that the votes and voices of the electorate remain the final arbiter of who governs this state," he said.

Anambra has a history of political violence. Roadblocks jointly manned by police and soldiers sprang up around the state capital Awka ahead of Saturday's vote.

"Judging by the way the campaign was run by most of the main candidates, I don't expect things to be any different from what we had in 2007," said one resident, businessman Emeka Okoroafar.

"There's tension in the atmosphere and people are generally apprehensive of what will happen tomorrow and the days after."

The Anambra election comes amid wider political uncertainty.

Yar'Adua is in his third month in hospital in Saudi Arabia, where he is being treated for a heart condition, and his failure to hand over to Jonathan has brought the country to the brink of a constitutional crisis.

FIERCE RACE

Leadership polls in Nigeria's 36 states are crucial because state governors are powerful figures, some controlling budgets larger than those of neighbouring countries, and key players in party conventions at which presidential candidates are chosen.

Anambra is one of eight states governed by opposition parties -- others include the commercial hub Lagos and the main northern state of Kano. The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) is anxious to take them by 2011.

At least 25 contenders are contesting the polls. The main rivals include incumbent Peter Obi, seeking a second term for the opposition All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and former central banker Chukwuma Soludo for the PDP.

Ex-state governor and former PDP member Chris Ngige is running for the opposition Action Congress party. Another ex-PDP governor Andy Uba, former aide to ex-president and powerful kingmaker Olusegun Obasanjo, is running for the Labour Party.

The fierce four-horse race has polarised the PDP's support base and raised the chances of a bitter fight. It is a scenario many fear could be replicated on a national scale should the party struggle to agree on a successor for Yar'Adua.

The run-up to the Anambra poll has already been turbulent. Most of the main parties chose their candidates without conducting primaries, sparking intra-party wrangling in a state that styles itself the "Pride of the Nation".

The parties have so far managed to avoid bloody clashes between supporters, though at least one politician was arrested this week with printed ballot papers.

The authorities have deployed over 23,000 police to Anambra to complement an existing 16,000-strong force, though some analysts point out that in previous elections the security forces themselves were accused of helping with vote rigging.