On 15 October 2012 Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, South Africa's former foreign affairs minister, will assume office as Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) to replace Dr Jean Ping of Gabon. The handover has generated huge expectations in some quarters. But how realistic are these expectations?

The rules governing the office of the Chairperson, in terms of powers, functions and limitations, can begin to give us an idea.

There is no single document that comprehensively elaborates on the powers and functions governing the position of the Chairperson. Instead, there are several documents from which one can tease out the different rules. In that sense, six relevant public and non- public documents can be identified. The public ones are the AU Constitutive Act, the protocol establishing the Peace and Security Council (PSC), statutes of the Commission and rules of procedure at the AU General Assembly. The non-public documents are the AUC Staff Rules and Regulations and the AUC Financial Rules and Regulations.

The AUC Chairperson is expected to assist the PSC in the formulation and implementation of PSC decisions. The Chairperson does this through the information and assistance provided by the PSC structures (such as the Continental Early Warning System, African Standby Force, Panel of the Wise and Military Staff Committee). This peace and security architecture of the AU is designed to prevent and respond to conflicts and crisis situations.

Regarding the administrative, legal and financial roles of the Chairperson, s/he will serve as the chief executive officer, the legal representative and the accounting officer of the commission. Despite the considerable role of the AUC Chairperson, Dr Dlamini-Zuma, like her predecessors, will have to contend with some limitations. Three main limitations are discernible:

The Chairperson does not have enforcement power. This curbs her ability to transform key decisions made by PSC declarations into reality.
The Chairperson does not have discretionary power. In fact, she is not allowed to exercise her discretion in responding to crises not anticipated by instruments and policies of the AU.
The Chairperson lacks significant control over the rest of the Commission. The Chairperson does not play a role in the election and appointment of the Deputy Chairperson or the Commissioners. This does not allow for proper oversight by the Chairperson of Commissioners. Importantly, the Commissioners are often subject to the political whims of member states.

Due to these limitations, the new leadership will have to contend with the statist structure of the AU and her capacity to deliver will depend on her ability to reach consensus with member states on the formulation and implementation of policies. This is more important than previously because of the controversial and heated character of the election of Dr Dlamini-Zuma. Political reconciliation will therefore be one of her foremost priorities. The constitution of her cabinet will be significant in bridging the political divide. There is a legitimate view that Francophone countries should be represented at the cabinet level. This is especially so because of the fact that the Chairperson and her deputy are both from Anglophone countries.

In conclusion, the impact of the chairperson on decision-making is limited because the main decision-making organ of the AU is the Assembly of Member States. There is, however, a lot of room for her to make an impact in rationalising and improving the administrative and financial structures of the AUC. She should also be able to bring new impetus to the operational reality of Pan-Africanism and the African Renaissance.

Despite all the bottlenecks in the functions of the AUC Chairperson, her ability to to enhance the internal governance structure of the commission could be a far-reaching contribution during her tenure.

This briefing was compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis division of the ISS Addis Ababa office.

Source: allAfrica