As expected, the summit between
presidents Salva Kiir and Omar el-Bashir on January 25 did not produce any
results. The term summit, which usually refers to a high-level meeting, is
losing its meaning in the context of South Sudan and Sudan.
Since the independence of South
Sudan on July 9, 2011, the two presidents held a series of summits. All of them
failed to yield any positive outcome towards the normalisation of relations
between their countries.
The last meeting did not only
fail but gave Bashir a chance to show his utter arrogance, egotism,
insensitivity, inflexibility and even disrespect for the mediators and the
members of our delegation.
Some international observers
who attended the summit were shocked by the negative attitude shown by Bashir
during the summit. This is not surprising. Bashir has been consistent in
revealing either consciously or sub-consciously his racist attitude towards
Africans.
One would sympathise with
President Salva Kiir and appreciate his patience and stamina to continue
engaging Bashir who has proven beyond doubt to be cynical, sarcastic and
unwilling to improve relations with South Sudan. Some international observers
saw a big contrast between the two presidents. President Salva Kiir showed
statesmanship, cool-minded and respect.
The real question is: How long
will the South continue attending these summits and how much hope can we attach
to Bashir's Sudan? It is clear that such summits are being used by Sudan to
boost its public relations and buy time.
The current status of the
disputed and claimed border areas and Abyei is in favour of Sudan. In Abyei,
Sudan is scooping all the oil revenues from Abyei while South Sudan, Warrap
state and the Ngok Dinka are getting nothing from their respective shares of 42
percent, 2 percent and 2 percent they are supposed to get under the Abyei
Protocol.
The presence of UN forces in
Abyei is providing security for oilfields and the Arab nomads and possibly may
be used by Sudan to implement its settlement plan of Arab nomads in the area.
Also Sudan is in control of all five disputed border areas, except for the 14
miles area, and all the claimed border areas, including Panthou (Heglig).
The leadership of the National
Congress Party has taken a clear decision not to implement the nine agreements
as they came to see them as detrimental for their survival.
Because South Sudan will
receive about 75 percent of the oil proceeds and Sudan will only get 25 percent,
the extremists in the NCP want to deny the South these much-needed resources and
strangle it economically.
Some NCP leaders even
anticipate that the Juba Government will fall within six months because of their
actions of stopping the export of Southern oil and destabilising the South, as
manifested in the recent incidents in Wau, Yei and Jonglei. Sudan has declared
by law its southern neighbour an enemy of the people of Sudan, like Israel.
There are, however, other
voices in the NCP which call for reasoning. They want the nine agreements to be
implemented, not only to share the oil proceeds but also to establish good
relations and soft borders which may benefit Sudan more in the long term.
The international community and
the African Union are reluctant to confront Bashir and force him to implement
the agreements. They are instead pushing South Sudan to continue conceding to
Khartoum on the pending issues to the level that the SPLM may run the risk of
depleting its political support.
In such an impasse, South Sudan
should go back to the drawing board and plan as if it has no border with Sudan.
While President Salva may continue to try and engage Bashir in the forthcoming
summits, the Government may need to embark on strategies to survive without
Sudan.
The reliance on Sudan as the
only outlet for its oil exports to be challenged, not by rhetoric but by
practical actions that will send a clear and strong message to Khartoum.
In particular, the Ministry of
Petroleum needs to prepare clear and coherent policies and strategies for the
oil sector in terms of alternative pipelines, exporting oil out by trucks, and
building refineries. The National Petroleum and Gas Commission has been formed
but it has not been meeting regularly.
It is critical that the
policies and strategies prepared by the ministry be adopted so as to provide a
sense of direction. The current composition of the commission is rather weak as
it does not include some relevant policy makers.
Also, there seems to be no
proper coordination between the Ministry of Petroleum and other relevant
ministries, particularly the ministries of justice and electricity.
Therefore, oil policies need to
be discussed by the Council of Ministers to ensure effective coordination in the
implementation. One would expect that these policies would ensure by the end of
this year functioning oil refineries, effective mining and export of other
minerals, transport of oil by trucks if feasible and commencing of construction
of alternative pipeline.
The current leadership of the
Ministry of Finance needs to be supported in pursuing the current austerity
measures, which may continue even if South Sudan manages to resume oil
production.
There are constant rumours of a
reshuffle in the national Government after the recent sweeping changes in the
army and the police. The expected new Government should be up to the challenge
of proving that we can survive without Sudan.
This new Cabinet should not
only be lean but also bring competent and new blood, people who will be able to
deliver. Any delay in the much-awaited reshuffle will paralyse the Government.
We need to avoid such uncertainty during this critical period. Also the new
Government should prepare our new nation for a real democratic transformation in
the run-up to the general elections in 2015.
Diplomatically, President Salva
should continue engaging the African leaders over the pending issues of Abyei,
the border and the nine agreements. Africa must be mobilised to confront or even
isolate Bashir.
Given the deteriorating
relations between both countries, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may need to
consider recalling its ambassador to Khartoum until relations improve. We also
need to mobilise the international community to avail soft loans for
infrastructure development, alternative pipelines and livelihoods recovery.
If we take such actions, I am
confident we will be able to prove that we are able to survive without Bashir's
Sudan. I am confident that we can make it because we have the will and the
resources.
Source: allafrica.com
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