10 April 2010

Daily Independent (Lagos)
Sunny Igboanugo

Had National Chairman of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, known the full weight of his comment that Acting President Goodluck Jonathan would not contest next year's presidential election, he would perhaps, have been more circumspect, or at least not expressed it with such glee or audacity.



That pronouncement, made after a meeting with the PDP hierarchy and the Governors' Forum, is now central to the life-threatening rumble in the ruling party, Sunday Independent has learnt.

Indications show that the declaration may not only lead to his sack from the exalted position, but also the re-jigging of the PDP as presently constituted, because Jonathan, its victim, and a powerful force in the party are working hard to reverse it.

Analysts say the planned return to the party of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his agenda to contest for President and former Military President, Ibrahim Babangida, also wanting to have a go at the Villa are a sure recipe for implosion within the party

Sunday Independent gathered that all options, including raw force, are being contemplated in a mix of strategies being packaged by the camp of the Acting President and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, which would incorporate massive local and international campaigns, to ensure Jonathan gets the 2011 presidential ticket.

That would run foul of the long-standing PDP zoning formula which rotates the power between the North and South which had it between 1999 and 2007 - an arrangement not known to the Constitution but which the party's founding fathers believe suits the ethno-religious peculiarity of Africa's biggest democracy.

Sources said Jonathan's planned visit to the United States and the rumoured return of former Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, are all part of the mix.

While the U.S., which has not hidden its disdain for the government of President Umaru Yar'Adua for allegedly not committed to the anti-graft campaign, is already throwing its weight behind Jonathan, Ribadu is said to be coming home to drive the anti-corruption process in manners which critics call a Gestapo-like approach targeted at shouting down anyone opposed to Jonathan's rumoured presidential ambition.

As EFCC helmsman, Ribadu was believed to have singled out Obasanjo's political enemies for prosecution.

Through Obasanjo's foreign connections and a massive propaganda by his allies in the media and civil society, sources claimed, America had been substantially sold the idea that it is only Ribadu that could fight corruption and had been hounded out of the country because Yar'Adua was uncomfortable that his friends and benefactors would be victims of the campaign.

The campaign for Ribadu's return emerged amid revelations of alleged massive fraud in the EFCC during his tenure, including allegations of his buying up seized properties of corrupt officials through proxies and non-remittance of sales to government coffers, as contained in a recent interim report of the Commission.

Sources said the allegations are likely to be brushed aside, as has been shown by a recent U.S. stance on the former EFCC boss, on which Washington hinged its continued partnership with Nigeria on anti-graft crusade.

One of the sources added: "But we all know that this is a dummy. Ribadu is actually coming to co-ordinate the effort to install Jonathan as substantive President in 2011. The move is either going to continue attracting the support of the U.S. and other members of the international community, because they don't know the truth or they have been told that Jonathan is the only one capable of fighting corruption and engendering good governance in a plausible manner."

The source said Ribadu would be appointed the Special Assistant to Jonathan on Anti-corruption, a platform from which to launch an assault against the governors thought to be the stumbling block to the Acting President's presidential ambition.

The source added: "And because you know these governors are not clean, they are going to buckle under the weight of evidence against them and if he succeeds with the type of impeachment he got under Obasanjo, the rest will be easy. "And you know, if you get the governors, you are already made in the PDP, because they control the delegates. And you know what happens once you get the PDP ticket at any level. The only antidote to that is if the governors are able to call his bluff or device their own strategy of outsmarting him."

The need to perfect Jonathan's ambition - and the issues surrounding Atiku's return and Babangida and Aliyu Gusau's ambitions - are said to have informed the postponement, twice, of the PDP National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, sources added.

The NEC meeting has not held because Jonathan and Obasanjo are said to be bent on changing the leadership of the party, particularly Ogbulafor, who they want to be replaced by former Ebonyi state Governor, Sam Egwu. The latter was Obasanjo's choice until the Governors shot down his ambition in the wake of Yar'Adua's presidency.

A NEC meeting now will frustrate the plot to give the 2011 presidency to Jonathan, as it would ensure the return of Ogbulafor whose fate currently lies with PDP Governors, all of whom have made clear that the presidency should stay in the North till 2015.

"The (Jonathan) camp doesn't want the timetable to be released just yet. But because there is no time again, they are likely to give in. We hear that Ogbulafor and his team would meet with Jonathan immediately he comes back from the U.S., which he has been using as an excuse to delay the NEC meeting. There is the time factor so I don't know how he is going to get around that," a source close to the horse-trading said.

If the effort to cow the governors and seize the present machinery fails since about 90 per cent of the state chief executives is said to be in support the PDP boss, Sunday Independent gathered that there is already a plan "B", which includes a possible splitting of the PDP.

"They might split the party with the likes of Obasanjo, Jonathan, IBB on the one side and the governors and the rest on the other. In that case it will be a big clash between the federal might and the state. I can tell you this may not be a piece of cake," he added.